ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/21/07 0809Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 0745Z	DS
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LOCATION...W TEXAS...SE NEW MEXICO...
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ATTN WFOS...MAF...EPZ...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...NEW STORMS INITIATING OVER W TX
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES-12 IMAGERY SUGGESTS NEW CELLS
ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER PARTS OF W TX S OF THE EARLIER HVY RAINS
THAT AFFECTED SE NM AND N CULBERSON/N REEVES/LOVING COUNTIES. SMALL
CLUSTER OF STORMS SEEN ON IR IMAGERY OVER NW PRESIDIO COUNTY PRODUCED
AN ESTIMATED 1-1.2" IN THE HR ENDING 0730Z AND 3 HR TOTALS NEAR 2"
BEFORE MOVING NWD AND WEAKENING. WEAKENING OF THIS CLUSTER HAS ALLOWED
FOR STRENGTHENING OF OTHER CELLS TO ITS N AND E AS SHOWN BY THE INCREASE
IN LIGHTNING IN THESE AREAS. NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED WITH REGARDS
TO MOISTURE CONTENT FROM 00Z PW ANALYSIS AS POCKET OF DRIER AIR LIES
TO THE E WITH GPS DATA SHOWING UNDER OR ABOUT 1" PW VALUES AS CLOSE AS
TERRELL/E PECOS COUNTIES. HOWEVER..GPS DATA ALSO STILL INDICATES THE
1.3-1.4" PW VALUES PRESENT OVER PRESIDIO/BREWSTER COUNTIES STRETCHING
NWD. THE NEW CELLS FORMING OVER S HUDSPETH/S CULBERSON/AND PARTS OF JEFF
DAVIS COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FLOW TO THE MCS
OVER SE NM AS RAPID CLOUD TOP WARMING HAS STARTED. A MERGER BETWEEN THE
GROWING CELLS OVER S CULBERSON COUNTY IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKELY WITH
STORM MOTION THEN PROBABLE TO TAKE CELLS SLOWLY NEWD INTO REEVES/WARD/S
LOVING COUNTIES. MAX RAINRATES SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADLILY CLIMB OVER THE
NEXT HR AS CELLS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND MERGE TOGETHER. ESTIMATE THAT
AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5" ARE POSSIBLE FROM S CULBERSON COUNTY TO W WARD COUNTY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2" WHERE CELL MERGERS OCCUR. SEE WEB
ADDRESS FOR ESTIMATE GRAPHIC IN ABOUT 10 MIN.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3222 10394 3058 10304 2963 10482 3084 10585
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