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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/21/07 0434Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11: 0400Z     DS
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LOCATION...W TEXAS...SE NEW MEXICO...
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ATTN WFOS...MAF...ABQ...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS..MOISTURE FROM N CENTRAL MX CONTINUES TO
BE PULLED NWD INTO W TX AND NM AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SITTING OFF THE CA COAST. VERY INTENSE CLOUD BURST OCCURRING WITHIN
THE LAST HR OVER SW EDDY/N CULBERSON COUNTIES HAS GROWN RAPIDLY INTO
A GOOD SIZE CLUSTER WITH A STRONG CORE OF STORMS IN A N-S LINE SHOWN
BY LIGHTNING DATA. CELLS HAVE MERGED OVER CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY PRODUCING
MANUALLY ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2.5" OVER MUCH OF EDDY COUNTY
WHERE THESE STORMS HAVE TRACKED SO FAR. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS WITHIN THE 342K THETA-E MAX WITH HIGHEST DEWPTS..CLOSE
TO 63F..SEEN JUST NE OF CURRENT ACTIVITY IN EDDY COUNTY. EXPECT ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BUILD TWDS THIS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE INVOF N LEA/S
ROOSEVELT/E CHAVES AS SFC WINDS ARE WEAK AND MID/UPPER LVL STLT WINDS
SEEM TO PROMOTE THIS TRAJECTORY. STLT WINDS DO ALSO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
DIFFLUENT AREA THAT EXISTS OVER E CHAVES/ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. NEW ACTIVITY
OVER N CULBERSON THAT HAS JOINED INTO THE SRN END OF THE LINE OF STORMS
MAY SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF CELLS THROUGH SRN EDDY/SW LEA COUNTIES SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH TO MAKE SURE HVY RAINS DO NOT STAY OVER AN AREA FOR TOO
LONG. STILL ESTIMATE RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5-2"/HR WIT THE STRONGEST CELLS
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3383 10416 3324 10316 3112 10390 3144 10489
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