ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/20/07 1844Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1830Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...NW WISCONSIN...C AND NE MINNESOTA...
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ATTN WFOS...DLH...MPX...FGF...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...
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EVENT...INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE FOR HEIGHTEN FF THREAT MOSTLY THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SATELLITE WINDS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF A BROAD DOUBLE JET FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND S CENTRAL CANADA.  SOUTHERN JET THAT
LOOKS WEAKER WAS HELPING TO POWER CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING THRU
CENTRAL MN VIC POPE TO MILLE LACS. BACK EDGE MOVING ON SATELLITE...BUT
THERE IS SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON BACK EDGE ALLOWING FOR TRAINING CELLS.
FF GUIDANCE VERY HIGH BUT MOISTURE AND ESPECIALLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
EQUALLY HIGH AND CONCERNED THAT EVEN THOUGH THIS INITIAL BATCH MAY
NOT CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...IT IS MOISTENING UP THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/HVY RAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE
CAREFULLY WATCHED.   AM IMPRESSED BY MODEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF 5/6
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO MOVEMENT WILL BE THE ONLY THING THAT
DOES NOT ALLOW THIS STORM/FRONT TO WRING OUT ITS MAX PRECIP EFFICIENTLY.
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NESDIS HYDROESTIMATOR ESTIMATING MAX 3HR RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES
IN POPE TO STEARNS COUNTY.  SECOND MAX TO THE NORTH IN HUBBARD TO CASS
COUNTY...SEE GRAPHICAL PRODUCT OF ESTIMATES AT HOME PAGE ADDRESS BELOW...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4837 8973 4526 9154 4522 9522 4747 9502
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