ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/20/07 1430Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12  1415Z  CK
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LOCATION...MINNESOTA...NE SOUTH DAKOTA...E NORTH DAKOTA...
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ATTN WFOS...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...MCS INCRG..EXPANDING EWD
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AUTOMATED STLT EST INDICATE 2-4" OVER
NE SD AND NE SD/W MN BORDER AREA FOR THE 6 HR PERIOD ENDING 1345Z.
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MCS HAS CONTINUED TO EVOLVE..WITH AREA OF COLDEST TOPS EXPANDING EWD INTO
MN. ON THE SW FLANK OVER SD..TSTMS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING DUE TO BACKING
OF LL JET AND RESULTANT STRONG LL THETA-E ADVECTION. IR AND VIS IMAGERY
INDICATE INCRG NUMBER OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS..ALONG WITH FURTHER CLOUD TOP
COOLING..ON EITHER SIDE OF THE NE SD/MN BORDER. IN ADDITION TO LL JET AND
THETA-E ADVECTION ENHANCING THE COMPLEX..GOES WIND ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY
ANIMATION SHOWS DECENT UPPR DIVERGENCE OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS..AND
LATEST IR/VIS TRENDS..INDICATE THAT VERY HVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA FM NE/E SD TO GENERAL VCNTY OF CENTRAL MN INCLUDING NRN
PORTIONS OF S CENTRAL MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HVY RAIN SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAPER OVER SD IN ANOTHER 2 HRS OR SO OVER SD AS WRN EDGE OF COMPLEX
MOVES EWD. SOME TRAINING AND MERGERS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS W TO CENTRAL
MN. AS FAR AS THE ERN EXTENT OF THE HVY RAIN..TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TWDS
N/NE MN DROP OFF INTO THE 40S COMPARED TO 50S FURTHER S..SO WOULD EXPECT
RAINFALL TO BE MORE ON THE LIGHT TO MOD SIDE THERE. HOWEVER..WITH TSTMS
ALSO INCRG OVER E ND..WOULD EXPECT MOD/HVY RAIN TO SPREAD ACRS THE AREA
FM SE ND TO NRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN.
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AN ESTIMATE GRAPHIC WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB IN APPX 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4682 9779 4669 9511 4638 9455 4473 9579 4483 9738
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