ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/19/07 2346Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12:2332Z DS
NOAA AMSU: 2157Z		AUTOESTIMATOR: 3HR ENDING 2315Z
.
LOCATION...NE FLORIDA...
.
ATTN WFOS...MLB...JAX...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...
.
EVENT...CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF RAIN BANDS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...UPPER LOW SITUATED IN ERN GOF CONTINUES
ITS VERY SLOW WWD DRIFT WITH THE RESULT BEING THE HVY RAINS COMING ONSHORE
IN NE FL AND OCCASIONALLY INTO EXTREME SE GA. UPPER FLOW IS CONDUCIVE FOR
MOD/HVY RAINS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA OVER NEXT 6 HRS AS STLT WINDS
SHOW UPPER LVL DVG FROM THE POSITIONING OF UPPER LOW AND THE FRONTAL
BNDRY STILL HANGING JUST OFF THE SE COAST. NOAA AMSU PASS SHOWS VERY
HIGH PW VALUES OFFSHORE THAT ARE BEING PULLED ACROSS NE FL..RANGING FROM
2.1-2.3". GOES SOUNDER DATA SEEMS TO CONFIRM THESE VALUES WITH ABOVE 2"
PIXELS SEEN. AREAL AVG. RAIN RATES FROM THIS PASS ON LAND..WHICH MUST
BE USED WITH CAUTION..RANGED BETWEEN .25-.5"/HR BUT OFFSHORE RATES OF
.4-.75"/HR WERE COMMONLY SEEN. CELLS APPEAR TO BE PERSISTENTLY FORMING
OFFSHORE DUE E OF KDAB IN THE BEST AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING NW INTO
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM N VOLUSIA TO ST JOHNS. ADDITIONALLY CELLS OF THE
TAIL END OF THE FRNT MOVING WWD AND MERGING WITH THE CELLS COMING UP FROM
THE SE ARE MOVING INTO THE COUNTIES FROM ST JOHNS NWD TO PARTS OF COASTAL
SE GA. WHILE RAINFALL HAS LESSENED DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING..EXPECT
PERSISTENT TRAINING RAINS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS BEING SEEN
WHERE CELLS CONVERGE OVER ST JOHNS/FLAGLER/PUTNAM/CLAY/AND N VOLUSIA. VERY
INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE SFC VORT THAT HAS NOW SPUN UP VERY NEAR KTTS
AND IS SEEN ON BOTH VIS IMAGERY AND REFLECTED IN SFC WIND PLOTS. FORCING
FROM THIS VORT WILL HELP TO FOCUS HVY RAINS TO ITS N OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS WITH ESTIMATED MAX AMOUNTS OF 2-3" POSSIBLE OVER NEXT 6 HRS. SEE
WEB ADDRESS IN ABOUT 10 MIN FOR 3 HR AUTOESTIMATOR GRAPHIC ENDING 2315Z
SHOWING 1-2" AND LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3051 8128 2900 8050 2886 8173 2978 8238
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Graphic


-