ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/16/07 1426Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G11  1400Z  CK
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LOCATION...ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...
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EVENT...STLT FEATURES/PARAMETERS POINT TWD HVY TSTMS LATER TODAY
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...STLT IMAGERY AND OTHER PARAMETERS ARE
INDICATING LIKELIHOOD OF HVY TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA. REFER
TO ANNOTATED GRAPHIC AT WEB ADDRESS BELOW.  GOES 11 WV IMAGERY SHOWS
VORT CENTER W OF TUS..WITH WV PLUME OVER SE QUARTER OF AZ/E AZ AND
MX. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS PW AND LI AXES OVER S CENTRAL/SE THRU
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE..WITH VALUES RANGING TO 1.4" AND -4C
RESPECTIVELY. THESE AXES ARE ALSO ALIGNED WITH LL THETA-E AXES.
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LOOKING BACK AT 24 HR STLT LOOP SHOWS CNVTN STARTED TO DEVELOP YESTERDAY
AROUND 20Z OVER SRN/S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF AZ AND LASTED FOR SEVERAL
HRS OVER THE AREA FM CENTRAL TO S AZ. LOOKING AT IMAGERY TODAY..STLT
FEATURES AND PARAMETERS INDICATE CONDITIONS FOR HVY TSTMS EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY..SUCH AS PRESENCE OF SHORT WAVE/VORT AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS SPREAD NWD FM MX. WITH LATEST VIS IMAGE SHOWING
ONLY PATCHES OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL TO SRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE..DECENT
SOLAR HEATING WILL ALSO PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE..AS WELL AS CIRA BLENDED
PW PRODUCT SHOWING PW'S RUNNING BETWEEN 150-200 PER CENT OF NORMAL..WOULD
EXPECT SOME FAIRLY HVY RAINFALL RATES TO OCCUR THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
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GRAPHIC WILL BE AVAILABLE ON WEB IN APPX 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3521 11165 3083 10929 3114 11203 3446 11324
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