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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/09/07 1455Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1445Z  JS
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LOCATION...CENT TO W ARKANSAS/N TO NW TEXAS/S AND SE OKLAHOMA
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ATTN WFOS...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MONITORING SEVERAL PATCHES OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS
LARGE REGION STRETCHING FROM NW TX TO CENT AR.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...
FOR SE OK/N AND NEE TX/W TO CENT AR...
BEST SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT BY FAR IS WITH THE CLUSTER CURRENTLY AFFECTING
SE OK/FAR W AR. THIS BATCH WHICH IS VERY SLOWLY SINKING TO THE SOUTH HAS
PRODUCED VERY HEAVY AUTOMATED SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF GENERALLY
2-4"/3 HOURS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG APPROXIMATE AXIS INCLUDING
OK COUNTIES OF LATIMER/LEFLORE/PUSHMATAHA/MCCURTAIN AND SMALL PORTIONS
OF THE W AR COUNTIES OF POLK/HOWARD. TRENDS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO DROP SOUTHWARD WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING TOWERING CU/NEW CELL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE S AND W END OF THE COMPLEX AS SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BELIEVE THERE
IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED TORRENTIAL RAIN RATES OF GREATER
THAN 2"/HR WITH AT LEAST A 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 HOUR PERIOD OF CELL TRAINING
TO AFFECT REGION FROM AROUND PUSHMATAHA/CHOCTAW COUNTIES OF SE OK AND
LAMAR/RED RIVER COUNTIES OF NE TX TO NEAR TEXARKANA. FARTHER TO THE EAST
HAVE NOTICED SOME INCREASE IN ENHANCEMENT ON COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP WITH
SLOW MOVING CELLS SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS WHICH APPEAR AS SMALL
OVERSHOOTING TOPS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. HOWEVER, IR PRESENTATION IS NOT
VERY GOOD WITH THESE AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS REGION THOUGH
TO SEE IF ANYTHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL FORMS FROM A SATELLITE PERSPECTIVE
AS CERTAINLY SOME THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS WITH VERY SLOW MOVING
CELLS IN HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
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FOR NW TX...ALSO WATCHING RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF NW TX
PANHANDLE JUST EAST OF OLD MCV WHERE CELLS CONTINUE TO REFORM
AROUND BRISCOE/SWISHER/HALL/DONLEY/COLLINGSWORTH/CHILDRESS COUNTY
REGION. AUTOMATED ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES ARE SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM 1.5-2.5"
DURING PAST 2-3 HOURS THERE ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
HIGHER TOTALS DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT WARMER CLOUD TOPS PRESENT. OBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAX SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BULLSEYE RIGHT OVER
CENTER OF ACTIVITY. THAT ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK FROM LAST NIGHT'S W TX COMPLEX SEEN IN CIRRUS BLOWOFF
IN IR/WATER VAPOR LOOPS MOVING NE FROM NE NM TO CENT KS APPEARS TO BE
AIDING IN REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS SAME REGION. AFTER VIEWING RECENT SFC
DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP BELIEVE THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR NEWER
CELL DEVELOPMENT/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER TO
THE EAST WITH TIME TOWARD CHILDRESS AND THE TX/OK BORDER.
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ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS
LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3512 10167 3457 9278 3307 9317 3312 10155
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