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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/09/07 0340Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0330Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...NW PENNSYLVANIA...N OHIO...E INDIANA...
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ATTN WFOS...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...
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EVENT...DEEP MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...HIGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPS
POSITIVE FEATURES FOR CONTINUING FF THREAT...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...PW MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED FROM
LOUISIANA/E TEXAS  THRU ARKANSAS...W TN...W KY...SE INDIANA...OHIO
THRU PENNA.  BUT ONLY A NARROW AREA THRU THIS PLUME OF DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHERE WINDS WERE BLOWING PARALLEL THE BEST MOISTURE FOR GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION POTENTIAL AND THAT FROM
ARKANSAS TO N CENTRAL OHIO...SO THAT IS A POSITIVE FOR HVY RAIN BURSTS
OVERNIGHT THAT COULD HEIGHTEN FF THREAT MOSTLY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING THRU IL/SE MO AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE CAN
DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE AND WRING OUT DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS OVER 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL.  SO AREAS MOST VULNERABLE ARE ONES WHERE SOIL IS
STILL MOIST FROM RAINS OF THE PAST MONTH.  OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN...PATCH
OF ENHANCED WARM TOPS MOVING THRU FAR N CENTRAL OHIO...WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT SE TO E CENTRAL INDIANA THAT COULD GIVE
ANOTHER BURST OF HVY RAIN TO N OHIO LATER TONIGHT.   GENERALLY CLOUD
TOPS ARE WARM AND NOT COLDER THAN -50C AND ONLY KILN'S SOUNDING HINTED
AT HIGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPS THAT WOULD HELP ENHANCE HVY RAINFALL
OUT OF THE PATCHES OF WARM CLOUD TOPS THAT MOVE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS E
INDIANA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF OHIO.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4208 8149 4191 8014 4028 8305 4036 8195 3966 8477 4089
8485
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