ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/05/07 1015Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0945Z  HANNA
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNFOLDING FROM CNTRL TX TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX
REGION
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM CNTRL TX TOWARDS
THE ARKLATEX REGION.  THE MOST RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING AND ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING FROM THE VIC OF HAMILTON COUNTY
NE TO KAUFMAN COUNTY AND ALSO FROM MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK EAST TO
CLARK COUNTY IN SW AR.
.
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LARGELY A RESULT OF
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE ORIGINATING FROM SW
OK AND EXTENDING SSW TOWARDS CNTRL TX.  E/W OUTFLOW JET FROM HENRIETTE
LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TOWARDS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW AND ALSO AIDING IN
FOCUSING UL DIVERGENCE OVER REGION.  CONVECTION ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH 85H
CONVERGENCE AND THIS IN TURN IS ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO ALLOW FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION.  35-40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ ON 310K THETA SURFACE FOCUSING
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORT INTO REAR END OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN REGENERATING CONVECTION ON THE TAIL
END OF LINE NEAR MILLS COUNTY.
.
NEARLY COLLOCATED LOW AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUMES ASSOCIATED WITH
HENRIETTE ALLOWING FOR EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AS EVIDENCED BY GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.40" NEAR ACT.  THIS AND DEEP LAYER ABOVE
0C LAYER WITH MODEST CLOUD LAYER SHEAR ON LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL RATES OF POSSIBLY OVER 2.0"/HR IN THE MOST INTENSE CORES.
WOULD CURRENTLY ESTIMATE RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND THIS MAGNITUDE NEAR THE
RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER JOHNSON AND HILL COUNTIES.  WOULD EXPECT
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AN APPROXIMATE AXIS FROM 05F TO DEQ TO MWT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3579 9392 3546 9299 3462 9264 3387 9266 3246 9402 3156
9533 3099 9667 3076 9744 3095 9789 3119 9858 3158 9857
3197 9820 3316 9686 3450 9531 3533 9503
.
NNNN