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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/03/07 1942Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G11  1923Z  CK
NOAA AMSU:  1403Z
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LOCATION...S CALIFORNIA...
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ATTN WFOS...PSR...VEF...SGX...
ATTN RFCS...CNRFC...
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EVENT...WARM TOP TSTMS OVER SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WARM TOP SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED S
OF DAG AND TO THE W AND S OF PSP IN THE COUNTIES MENTIONED ABOVE. CLOUD
TOPS S OF PSP ARE -26C..BUT ARE COLDER AT -43C OVER SW SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. THE  WARMNESS OF THE CLOUD TOPS..ALONG WITH SFC T/TD DEPRESSIONS
OF 50F MAKE IT DIFFICULT ATTM TO DISCERN STLT RAINFALL EST. AUTOMATED
RAINFALL ESTIMATORS ARE NOT DETECTING RAINFALL ATTM DUE TO WARMNESS OF
CLOUD TOPS. WOULD SUSPECT THAT SOME OF THE INITIAL RAINFALL IS BEING
EXPENDED TO MOISTEN UP LL OF ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID..THERE ARE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT POINT TWD FURTHER INCR IN CONVECTION..ALONG WITH
MOD/HVY RAINFALL.
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GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY ANIMATION SHOWS INSTABILITY INCRG..WITH LI VALUES IN
THE -2 TO -4 RANGE. AT THE SAME TIME..CINH HAS DECR SIGNIFICANTLY. WITH
REGARD TO PW'S..MICROWAVE DATA AND GOES SOUNDER DATA SHOWS VERY HIGH
PW'S ALONG THE S CA COAST AND BAJA..RANGING UP TO 1.8". OVERLAND..GOES
SOUNDER AND GPS DATA INDICATE PW'S RANGING FM 1.2" OVER SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY TO 1.6"PLUS JUST N OF MX BORDER. THESE FACTORS ALONE WOULD SUPPORT
FURTHER INCR. BUT ADDING TO THE MIX IS THE TREND ON VIS IMAGERY. VIS
IMAGERY ANIMATION SHOWS INCRG LINES OF SE-NW CU/TCU. ONE MAIN LINE..OR
BAND..EXTENDS FM BAJA TO S OF DAG. SMALLER SE-NW LINES ARE ALSO FORMING
OVER RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. THE INCR IN THE CU/TCU LINES
SUGGEST THAT CELL MERGERS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE CU/TCU DEVELOP INTO
TSTMS..AND THEN MERGE WITH THE EXISTING STMS. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THAT
STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY LIGHT. GOES STLT WINDS AT MID/UPPR LEVELS
ARE AROUND 10 KTS. THIS INDICATES THAT CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE STATIONARY
TO VERY SLOW AT BEST.
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TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE HIGH PW VALUES OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA..AS LL
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP DUE TO INCRG TSTMS/MERGERS/SLOW CELL MOVEMENT..WITH
TEMP/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DECRG..HVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT
ACRS ALONG A BAND STRETCHING FM S CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY NNWD/NNWD
THRU RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3485 11643 3348 11606 3327 11671 3465 11758
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