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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/03/07 0825Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0815Z  JS
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LOCATION...SOUTHERN TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...CRP...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND BRIEFLY HIGH RAIN RATES ARE ACCOMPANYING
MCS SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN TEXAS.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES
ARE INDICATING RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3"/HR WITH STRONGEST CELLS EMBEDDED
WITHIN MCS NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE STEADY MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM ACTUAL HOURLY ESTIMATED TOTALS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN
1-2" WITH TOTALS OVER 2" IN A 1-2 HOUR TIME PERIOD. LATEST IMAGERY
THROUGH 0815Z NOW APPEARS TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT WARMING TO THE CLOUD TOPS
ACCOMPANYING THE MCS WHICH MAY INFER A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN RAIN RATES,
ESPECIALLY WITH RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP SEEMING TO SHOW THE SAME THING IN
REFLECTIVITY TRENDS.
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WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER W TX/N MEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRINGING
HIGH MOISTURE (PARTLY FROM TS HENRIETTE) INTO TEXAS. 00Z RAOB DATA
ALONG WITH MORE RECENT GOES SOUNDER AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES SEEN WELL IN EXCESS OF 2" OVER FAR S TX/N MEX/W
GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH GOES HIGH DENSITY WIND
PLOT AND RUC SHORT RANGE FORECAST ALSO POINT TOWARD N MEX/S TX BEING IN
A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SUBTROPICAL
JET AXIS. SOME CONVERGENCE AT THE SFC IS ALSO NOTED IN OBJECTIVE SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ANALYSIS ACROSS FAR S TX WHICH ADDS ANOTHER FAVORABLE
PARAMETER TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION.
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BASED ON CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION TRENDS EXPECT LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY
TO BEGIN TO AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COUNTIES OF CAMERON/HIDALGO
IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2758 9695 2491 9611 2458 9863 2734 9972
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