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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/27/07 1351Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 1345Z
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LOCATION...N ARIZONA...S UTAH...
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ATTN WFOS...FGZ...SLC...VEF...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...
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EVENT...MOISTURE SLUG
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MORINING RAOBS AND SUBSEQUENT RUC2
ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY GOOD SLUG OF MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS SOME ORIGINS WITH EX-DEAN.
85H TDS OVER 16C AND 700 UP TO 10C AND SFC IN THE 50S IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WITHIN THIS DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE MDT TO HVY RAINFALL
ACROSS N AZ/S UT TODAY.  UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE OVER UT IS INTENSIFYING
AS NW PACIFIC ENERGY SURGES SE AS SEEN IN WV LOOP ALONG WITH JET EXIT
DYNAMICS OVER S CA/N AZ WITH WEAK JET SOUTHERN STREAM JETLET...IS LEADING
TO IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE ACCENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EARLY WITHOUT DAYTIME HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION.  CURRENTLY IR TOPS
ARE NOT VERY COLD BUT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW ARE QUITE COOL
TO REACH SATURATION VALUES IN IR ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES.  PWS OF 1.0"
PER GOES SOUNDER AND VERY GOOD ANALZED SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO THE
CELLS HAVE LEAD TO ESTIMATES  AND SO COLDEST TOPS OVER ST. GEORGE AND
NE MOHAVE COUNTIES ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1HR TOTALS OF 1.0"-1.25"
NEARING FFG VALUES.  WEAK CELLS TO THE SE OF THE COMPLEX ACROSS C
COCONINO COUNTY ARE ORGANIZING WELL BUT HAVE NOT CONSOLIDATED ENOUGH
FOR HIGH ESTIMATES YET... WITH .25-.5" TOTALS SO FAR...AS SUN WARMS THE
AREA THAT IS NOT COVERED BY CLOUDS...LOOKING FOR MUCH HIGHER COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3816 11371 3776 11073 3524 11144 3630 11379
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