ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/25/07 2245Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 2230Z  RUMINSKI
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LOCATION...NEW MEXICO...ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...CBRFC...
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EVENT...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CNVTN THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN
NM/AZ HAS BEEN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL CIRC WHERE THERE
HAS BEEN MORE SOLAR HEATING. CNVTN OVER SOCORRO..CATRON AND COCONINO
COUNTIES HAS NOT BEEN IN DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THIS HAS LIMITED RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER..GOOD SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH UPR LEVEL SPD MAX OVER
CNVTN..AS INDICATED BY CIRRUS TRACERS..OF 60 KT HAS ALLOWED FOR UPR
EVACUATION TO ENHANCE UPDRAFTS. HARD TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON SATELLITE
ESTS OF RAINFALL WITH CNVTN OCRG IN TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT AND OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES BUT SUSPECT THAT 1 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL WITH COLDER CLD
TOPS PSBL.
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WITH EXTENSIVE CLD COVER OVER ALL OF SRN AZ FOR MOST OF THE DAY THIS HAS
INHIBITED CNVTN THUS FAR. HOWEVER..CLDS HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY ERODED PAST
1-2 HRS AND SOME CU TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SANTA CRUZ AND NEIGHBORING
COCHISE AND PIMA COUNTIES NR AND JUST EAST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRC. FEEL
THAT CNVTN WILL STILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN/EVE AND HEAVY RAIN PSBL. SRN
AZ IS FIRMLY IN DEEP MOISTURE WITH GPS DERIVED PW/S OF 2 INCHES JUST S
OF THE BORDER AND A LITTLE LES THAN THAT OVER SRN AZ.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3519 11233 3506 10784 3138 10820 3147 11209
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