ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/23/07 1426Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12  1415Z  CK
.
LOCATION...NW PENNSYLVANIA...NE OHIO...
.
ATTN WFOS...CLE...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...
.
EVENT...TSTMS INCRG OVER LAKE ERIE
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV AND IR IMAGERY ANIMATIONS SHOWS
IMPULSE MOVG EWD ACRS W LAKE ERIE..WHILE IR/VIS IMAGERY SHOW VORT CENTER
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI MOVE EWD AS WELL. OUT AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE AND
VORT..CLUSTERS OF CNVTN HAVE BEEN INTENSIFYING OVER LAKE ERIE AND OVER
NW PA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC THETA-E RIDGE LINE EXTENDING NEWD
ACRS THE DISCUSSION AREA..WHICH IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH ZONE OF SFC
CONVERGENCE.
.
WHILE THE CLUSTER OVER ERIE COUNTY/PA IS SHOWING SOME EWD MOVEMENT..THE
CONCERN IS THAT THE MORE INTENSE CELLS OVER LAKE ERIE WILL FOLLOW..AND
MOVE OVER ERIE COUNTY/PA AS WELL. IN ADDITION..VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CNVTN
EXTENDS SWD ACRS LAKE COUNTY/OH. WITH PW'S RUNNING QUITE HIGH..AND
CLOUD TOP TEMPS AROUND -70C..1-2" OF RAIN IS PSBL OVER NW PA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. ALSO OF CONCERN..ARE SOME REDEVELOPING CELLS OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE..PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO INCRG LIFT AHEAD OF IMPULSE
AND VORT. THUS..TRAINING SITUATION COULD SET UP ACRS NW PA.  AS FOR NE
OH..SOME MOD/HVY RAIN CAN OCCUR AS WELL..BUT STLT TRENDS INDICATE NW PA
WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM AREA..AND PSBLY ASHTABULA COUNTY/OH AS WELL. IF
TRAINING SITUATION DOES DEVELOP..RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2" WOULD
BE LIKELY.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 4246 8011 4192 7981 4180 7996 4145 8105 4194 8123
.
NNNN