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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/22/07 0315Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0245Z  JS
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LOCATION...S WISCONSIN/NW ILLINOIS/SE MINNESOTA/W CENT TO NE IOWA
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ATTN WFOS...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD EVOLVE INTO SERIOUS HEAVY
RAIN EVENT OVERNIGHT.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE OBVIOUS PRIMARY CONCERN EXISTS
IF TORRENTIAL RAINS SET UP ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WITH PRE-EXISTING
HYDRO PROBLEMS IN SE MN/NE IA/S WI/N IL. SOME ACTIVITY IS ALREADY
AFFECTING PARTS OF THIS AREA AND AT THIS POINT BELIEVE SATELLITE
TRENDS ARE POINTING TOWARD AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS REGION RECEIVING
MORE REPEAT/BACKBUILDING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. IR LOOP SHOWS
THE MAJOR RAPID FORMATION OF LINEAR MCS ACROSS NEB/IA EXTENDING INTO
SE MN IN DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS N
US. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE KEYED IN ON A FEW POCKETS WITHIN
THIS MCS ESPECIALLY SO FAR OVER W CENT IA WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 2-3" AND
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 3" ALONG APPROXIMATE LINE FROM PLYMOUTH/WOODBURY
COUNTIES TO PALO ALTO/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. WITH THE WEST-EAST ORIENTATION
OF THIS ACTIVITY TAKING SHAPE DUE TO EMBEDDED MESOSCALE IMPULSES BELIEVE
SOME ADDITIONAL TRAINING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR SPOTS
EVEN FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN THIS INTO N CENT AND POSSIBLY NE IA. RATES
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS WITHIN THE MCS ARE ESTIMATED AT 2.0-2.5"/HR DUE
TO MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATES
PW VALUES OF AT LEAST 1.75" IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF VALUES CLOSER TO 1.9" JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE. GPS
PW TRENDS ALSO SHOW VALUES STEADILY INCREASING TO THE SOUTH AND SW OF
THE MCS WITH 1.7-2.0" POINT VALUES NOTED RECENTLY. ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC
DEWPOINT MOISTURE MAXIMUM AXIS POOLED FROM W IA TO N IL WITH IMPRESSIVE
MID-UPPER 70S OBSERVED.  LATEST RUC FORECAST SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY AND
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENT AND NE IA INTO S WI. BELIEVE WITH ALL OF THESE
FACTORS IN PLACE AND WITH LINE ALREADY ORIENTING ITSELF FROM WEST TO
EAST THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED CELL TRAINING THREAT ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL BACKBUILDING ON THE SW FLANK OF THE MCS RESULTING IN
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS CENT TO NE IA/EXTREME SE MN/SW WI DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A BIT LATER ON THE THREAT COULD ALSO EXTEND INTO E
CENT IA/S CENT WI AND NW IL AS LINE SAGS A BIT TO THE S AND SEE TOWARD
THE BETTER INSTABILITY.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4437 9232 4403 8977 4221 8981 4195 9468 4265 9585
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