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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/20/07 1040Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1015Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...OHIO...MICHIGAN...INDIANA...
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ATTN WFOS...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...NCRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN EVENT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ONGOING HEAVY CONVECTION FROM THE VIC
OF ASW TO NEAR TOL IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WARM CLOUD TOPS THAT
IS MOVING TO THE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY AT AROUND 40MPH.  THE CONCERN IS
THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONTINUOUSLY REDEVELOPING TOWARDS PROFILER
INDICATED 35KT LLJ AT 85H TO SLOW DOWN OVERALL MCS MOVEMENT.  MID LEVEL
TROF OVER MO, REMNANTS OF ERIN AND DEEP MOISTURE FEED INTERSECTING
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OVER IL AND IN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE THREAT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONT WHILE SUBSEQUENTLY
TRAINING DOWNSTREAM.  ALSO, EASTERN LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND JET MAX
WILL LIKELY BE HELD IN PLACE BY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF E
CANADIAN TROF.  THIS SHOULD HELP TO ESTABLISH A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UL DIVERGENCE TO FOCUS ASCENT OVER AREA AREA WHILE ATTENDANT LLJ AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY IN PLACE.
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MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM SCALE FEATURE ON IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR DFI.  IR IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN A PERSISTENT OVERSHOOTING TOP IN THIS AREA FOR THE LAST 30-60
MINUTES AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 1-2"/HR WITH THIS FEATURE AGREE WELL
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OUT OF DFI.  AREA NEAR DFI COULD POTENTIALLY
HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
AND WOULD EXPECT LOCAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.  OTHERWISE, 1-2" WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS 15 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF AN AXIS FROM ASW TO TOL.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4221 8377 4190 8280 4132 8266 4114 8354 4088 8527 4092
8682 4116 8721 4159 8722 4203 8633 4213 8579
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