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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/20/07 0955Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0945Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...SGF...TSA...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY CONVECTION WITH ERIN REMNANTS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HIGH SPEED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT CLOUD SWIRL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIN WAS LIFTING TO
THE NE AND WAS EAST OF MCI.  VERY LITTLE REFLECTION SEEN IN SURFACE OBS
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT HAVE NOTED A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO CONFLUENT LLJ AXIS
TO THE SOUTH OF 85H TROF/ERIN REMNANTS OVER NW MO.  THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
FEATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME FAIRLY RAPID CLOUD
TOP COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH MERGING CELLS JUST W OF SGF.  SWRLY 85H LLJ ON
VWPS HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONTINUOUSLY TRANSPORT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
INTO THE BACK END OF COMPLEX TO ALLOW FOR REGENERATING CONVECTION OVER
SW MO WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS TRAIN MOSTLY ENE.  BELIEVE THIS THREAT
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE USUAL LLJ VEERING ALLOWS
FOR A SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY TRANSPORT TO MCS.  BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN WOULD EXPECT LOCAL RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1.0-2.0"/HR IN
THE MOST INTENSE CORES AS EVIDENCED BY RECENT REPORTS OUT OF JLN.
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QUICK PEAK AT 0945Z IMAGE SHOWS THAT A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE MERGER HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES IN THE VIC OF E JASPER AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES.  WOULD ESTIMATE RAINFALL RATES OF 2.0"/HR IN THIS AREA WITH
LOCAL TOTALS OF 2.0-3.0" LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3799 9332 3790 9211 3717 9131 3657 9206 3649 9336 3684
9429 3722 9430
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