ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/20/07 0615Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 0600Z  HANNA
.
LOCATION...IOWA...
.
ATTN WFOS...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
.
EVENT...REGENERATING CONVECTION
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
OUTFLOW ENFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE VIC OF SUX AND THEN
WINDS SE TOWARDS OTM.  JUST N AND NE OF THIS BOUNDARY AN AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONTINUALLY REGENERATING WITH INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DROPPING TO THE SE/ESE.  PROFILER AND GOES SOUNDER DATA SHOW THAT
LOW LEVEL INFLOW APPEARS TO BE ORIGINATING FROM A CORRIDOR FROM EXTREME
NW IA AND MOST OF NE WHERE CAPE IS RUNNING BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG AND
85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ON 0Z UA ANALYSIS.  SYNOPTIC FORCING
WAS ALSO BEING PROVIDED BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS PER LATEST WV IMAGERY.
.
USING GOES-11 FOR ANALYSIS AS GOES-12 IN KEEP OUT ZONE UNTIL 0615Z
AND IT SHOWS THAT THE MOST PERSISTENT AND EXPLOSIVE CLOUD GROWTH
HAS BEEN CENTERED FROM POCAHONTAS TO E CALHOUN AND WEBSTER COUNTIES.
MOISTURE PLENTIFUL OVER THE REGION AS EVIDENCED BY GOES SOUNDER AND
GPS PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN EXCESS OF 2.0" WHICH IS NEAR 200% ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES.  0Z LOCAL AREA SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING
FAVORABLE WARM RAIN PROCESS SOUNDING ALONG WITH LITTLE CLOUD LAYER
SHEAR AND THESE FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3"/HR IN
THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES.  MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST
THAT OVER THE PAST 2-3 HRS BETWEEN 3-5" HAS FALLEN OVER THE E CALHOUN
AND WEBSTER COUNTIES.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 4330 9501 4312 9433 4297 9320 4267 9220 4232 9174 4183
9157 4147 9198 4147 9270 4168 9380 4218 9488 4306 9526
.
NNNN