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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/19/07 0510Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 0500Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...WISCONSIN...ILLINOIS...MINNESOTA...IOWA...
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ATTN WFOS...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN EVENT FROM S MN INTO S WI
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE WELL
UNDERWAY OVER PORTIONS OF S MN AND EXTENDING INTO S WI AND FAR NE IL.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MADDOX
FRONTAL TYPE FF SITUATION.  FORCING FOR ONGOING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
DRIVEN IN LARGE PART BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT, BEST EVIDENCED ON THE 310K
THETA SURFACE, INTO AGEOSTROPHIC JET CIRCULATION FROM JET MAX OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS SEEN
ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ENTERING MN TO AID IN UL FORCING.
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LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND ONGOING CONVECTION HAS ALIGNED WELL WITH MEAN DEEP
LAYER FLOW TO HEIGHTEN THE THREAT OF TRAINING CONVECTION.  BEST SATELLITE
FF SIGNATURE APPEARS TO BE WITH RAPIDLY COOLING AND EXPANDING CONVECTION
FROM THE VIC OF ABOUT 45 MILES W OF ULM TOWARDS LNR AND MSN.  PROFILER AND
GOES SOUNDER DATA SHOWS THAT LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS COINCIDENT WITH BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS AND THIS IS HELPING TO ISENTROPICALLY
DELIVER MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE UPWIND PORTION OF ONGOING
COMPLEX.  THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR CONTINUOUS REGENERATION ON THE UPWIND
EDGE OF COMPLEX, IN EXTREME E ND AND SW MN, WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TRAINING INTO S MN AND S WI.  LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN AREAS ALONG AN APPROXIMATE AXIS
FROM ULM TO MSN WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS SHOULD RANGE
FROM ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1-3" WITH SOME EXTREMELY ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 3"
POSSIBLE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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GOES-12 IS IN KEEP OUT ZONE THROUGH 0615Z SO GOES-12 IMAGERY WILL NOT
BE AVAILABLE UNTIL 0615Z.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4492 9616 4488 9391 4436 9105 4343 8859 4276 8787 4241
8807 4230 8893 4267 9052 4325 9240 4396 9486 4424 9638
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