ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/19/07 0410Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0345Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
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ATTN WFOS...TSA...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAINS WITH TD ERIN
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CENTER OF
TD ERIN IS JUST WEST OF HBR.  BEST PRESSURE FALL AXIS EXTENDS FROM HBR
TOWARDS THE OKC AREA SO A CONTINUED SLOW NE/ENE MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS IS TYPICAL WITH REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEMS,
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE BLOW UP APPEARS TO BE WELL UNDERWAY NEAR AND ENE OF
CENTER OF ERIN.  THE MOST EXPLOSIVE AND PERSISTENT CLOUD GROWTH, AND
SUBSEQUENT HEAVIEST RAINFALL, APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER E KIOWA AND S
CADDO COUNTY.  MOISTURE IS OBVIOUSLY PLENTIFUL OVER REGION AS EVIDENCED
BY 2.24" PRECIPITABLE WATER ON 0Z OUN SOUNDING.  THE COMBINATION OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE, FOCUSED ASCENT, DEEP ABOVE 0C LAYER (4KM) AND LITTLE CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALIZED EXTREME RAINFALL RATES.
THIS CONFIRMED BY MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES WHICH SUGGEST RAINFALL
RATES FROM 2.0"/HR TO AS MUCH AS 4.0"/HR RAINFALL RATES OVER E KIOWA/S
CADDO COUNTIES.
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LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TROF OF LOWER PRESSURE (PSEUDO WARM
FRONT) EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF ERIN ENE TOWARDS OKC.  THUS WOULD EXPECT
THAT HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD FOCUS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
ALSO NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIN.  THIS ALL SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY
FROM HBR TO OKC OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HRS WITH LOCAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4"
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 6" POSSIBLE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3642 9711 3596 9658 3476 9690 3415 9799 3392 9883 3402
9964 3468 9971 3529 9959 3583 9891
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