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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/18/07 0026Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 0015Z	DS
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LOCATION...S WISCONSIN...N ILLINOIS...S MINNESOTA...E CENTRAL IOWA...
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ATTN WFOS...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...HVY RAIN IN SE MN..CELLS STARTING TO BACKBUILD
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...EMBEDDED LINE OF TSTORMS WITHIN WARM
TOP MOD RAINS ACROSS PART OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA HAS BEEN ANCHORED
OVER SE MN FOR THE PAST FEW HRS. HYDROESTIMATOR SHOWS AROUND .7" OVER SW
WINONA/OLMSTED/NE FILLMORE COUNTIES FOR THE HR ENDING 2330Z. BASED ON THE
WARM TOP NATURE OF CELLS AND 00Z OBS..THIS SEEMS TO BE UNDERESTIMATED BY
ABOUT .3-.5" AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL HAS CONTINUED OVER ABOVE MENTIONED
COUNTIES SINCE THEN. PLOT OF SFC WINDS SHOWS A SOMEWHAT CNVG AREA
SPREADING WWD THROUGH SRN MN AS SERLY WINDS FROM N IL/E IA MEET ENERLY
WINDS FROM N WI. ALONG WITH THIS..SLIGHTLY DVG WINDS AT THE UPPER LVL PER
STLT WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM S CENTRAL TO SE MN. THIS HAS ALLOWED CELLS
TO REMAIN STNRY AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO BACKBUILD PER VIS SAT/RADAR
TRENDS. SEVERAL OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE SEEN ON VIS IMAGERY ALONG THE LINE
OF TSTORMS WHICH HAS BEEN TWISTING BACK AND FORTH AS TOWERING CU CONTINUE
TO GROW TO THE W AND EXPECT A TURNING FROM A NW-SE ORIENTATION TO MORE OF
A W-E POSITIONING OVER NEXT 1-2 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE MOD/HVY TRAINING
RAINS ACROSS SRN MN WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING IN EXTREME SE MN WHERE HVY
RAINS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. BELIEVE POSSIBLE FOR RAINFALL OF 1-2" WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER NEXT FEW HRS.
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VIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS CU FIELDS GROWING MORE SLOWLY IN E CENTRAL IA AND
PREVIOUS THINKNG WAS THAT ENHANCED TSTORMS ALONG THE IL/WI BORDER MAY
EXTEND WWD INTO THIS AREA WHERE THETA-E AXIS IS FOUND BUT WITH LACK OF
DVLPMT AM NOW UNSURE OF THIS. COULD SEE SOME NEW CELLS INITIATE IN E IA
WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT NOW SEEN FROM STORMS IN SRN WI ON STLT BUT THINKING
IS THAT FOR THE MOST PART..HEAVIEST RAINS WILL STAY IN SRN MN FOR NOW.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4439 9539 4430 9057 4225 8902 4207 9474
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