ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/18/07 0240Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0225Z   LIDDICK
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LOCATION...WESTERN TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...EWX...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY CONVECTION BAND OVER W CNTRL TX
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR IMAGERY SHOWING COLD TOPS WITH
OVERSHOOTING TOPS AS WELL OVER NE VAL VERDE/SW SUTTON/NE EDWARDS COUNTY
FROM 0015Z TO PRESENT.  MANUAL ESTIMATES SHOWING 3.0"-4.0" IN THE LAST
2-3 HOURS OVER THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2.0"
AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT -75C.

ALSO CONCERNED WITH NOLAN/RUNNELS/CALLAHAN COUNTIES WITH ESTIMATES OF
2.0"-4.0"/3 HRS IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN SOME MERGERS AS
WELL AS STEADIER RAINS ON THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER.

NEXT FEW HOURS AM CONCERNED WITH COUNTIES STRETCHING FROM VAL VERDE TO
TAYLOR/JONES COUNTIES AS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A HEALTHY LOOKING
CONVECTIVE BAND BEGINNING TO FILL IN BETWEEN THE COUNTIES MENTIONED.
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW NNEWD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...EXPECTING RAIN RATES
OF 2.0"-4.0" ANYWHERE ALONG THE CONVECTIVE BAND AS TRAINING AND MERGERS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR FREQUENTLY.  DEVELOPMENT STRETCHED INTO MEXICO WHERE
850 THETA-E TRANSPORT AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAND SHOULD HELP TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION FOR THE TIME BEING.  ON THE NRN EDGE NEAR THE
LOW EXPECTING SLIGHTLY LOWER RATES...BUT A MUCH STEADIER SOAKING RAIN
AS THE MOISTURE FEEDS AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND MOVES NNEWD WITH IT.

CHECK WEB IN APPROX 10 MIN FOR ESTIMATOR GRAPHIC.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3243 10041 3149 9963 2870 10096 2954 10205
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