ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/16/07 1305Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1245Z  HE 0915-1215Z GG
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...ERIN RAINFALL
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HYDROESTIMATOR (THRU 1215Z) CONTINUES
TO KEY ON VERY COLD TOPS (TO -80C) ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENT BANDS
OVER BRAZORIA TO COLORADO COUNTIES WHERE TOTALS OVER THE LAST 3HRS ARE
ESTIMATED OVER 3� ALONG THAT SWATH WITH A MAXIMA OF 3.7� OVER E
WHARTON. THE TOTALS ARE SLOWLY LOWERING NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIN WHERE
THE COMPLEX HAS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TOTALS MAXED AT 2.7� OVER SW
VICTORIA/NE REFUGIO COUNTY.  THIS WARMING ALSO HAS LEAD TO EXPOSURE OF
SOME WEAKER BANDING FEATURES IN THE IR IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED OVERSHOOTING
TOPS SEEN IN EARLIEST VIS IMAGE ACROSS MATAGORDA TO LAVACA TO N DEWITT
COUNTIES.

STILL PW LOOP FROM POLAR PASSES ALONG WITH CONFIRMATION FROM GPS NETWORK
SHOW THAT CONVECTION IS ONLY LEADING EDGE OF EXTREME VALUES OF 2.5 OR
GREATER THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN AND EXTEND OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN
GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.  IT IS THIS FLUX OF MOISTURE AND CONTINUED
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LLC THAT WILL LEAD TO A VERY DICEY SITUATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE ERIN SHIFTS TOWARD THE HILL COUNTY AND
SLOWS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS.
PLEASE SEE 3HR GRAPHIC AT WEB ADDRESS BELOW
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3077 9835 3040 9478 2828 9382 2753 9698 2906 9936
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Graphic


-