ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/07/07 1030Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1002Z  RUMINSKI
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LOCATION...OHIO...MICHIGAN...INDIANA...
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ATTN WFOS...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...NCRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN WITH LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IMPRESSIVE CNVTV COMPLEXES THAT HAVE BEEN
POUNDING PATS OF IA..WI AND IL ALL NIGHT ARE NOW POISED TO TRACK ACRS
SRN MI AND EXTRM NRN IN/NW OH. WHILE CNVTN IS SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE
NOW..THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING REMAINS HIGH AS SERIES OF MCV/S WORK
THEIR WAY EWRD IN LARGER SCALE FLOW. PW/S AOA 2 INCHES REMAIN JUST S OF
CNVTV MASS AND ARE FEEDING INTO CNVTN.
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MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER CNVTN WILL CONT THRU THE MRNG. SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS LESS THAN WHAT IT WAS FURTHER WEST LAST NIGHT. 8H
THETA-E ADV IN PLACE ACRS SRN MI AND NRN OH. GOOD ISENTROPIC GRADIENT
ALSO IN PLACE ACRS NRN IN/OH ALTHO CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW IS NOT TERRIBLY
STG. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SPEED MAX ON N SIDE OF COMPLEX (SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 KTS) WILL BE WORKING IT/S WAY EWRD ACRS
THER UPR PENINSULA OF MI THIS MRNG AND LEAVE MUCH OF LWR MI IN RR QUAD
OF THIS JET THAT WILL ALSO AID IN KEEPING CNVTN GOING. THEREFORE FEEL
THAT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS ELEVATED THIS MRNG ACRS THE WHOLE SRN TIER
OF COUNTIES IN LWR MI. RAIN RATES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN
WHAT WAS SEEN OVERNIGHT FURTHER UPSTRM BUT HLAF HR AMNTS OF 1.0 TO 1.25
INCHES STILL PSBL.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4251 8713 4235 8309 4143 8319 4162 8723
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