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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/04/07 0840Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0815Z  JS
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LOCATION...SW MINNESOTA/NW IOWA/CENT TO E SOUTH DAKOTA
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ATTN WFOS...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD VERY SLOWLY TO
THE EAST WITH REGENERATION OCCURRING OVER CENT TO E SD.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...TRENDS HAVE REMAINED RATHER CONSISTENT
SINCE LAST SPENES MESSAGE AS ACTIVITY SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER CENT TO E SD ON THE NOSE OF BEST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER SWOMCD. RECENT
RUC SHORT RANGE FORECAST ALSO DEPICTS BEST 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THIS REGION. OTHER INDICATIONS OF GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY EXIST IN THE
REGION FOR DECENT RAIN RATES AS CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RECENT
GPS PW DATA WHICH SUGGESTS PW VALUES OF JUST UNDER 2" IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF THIS COMPLEX. IR IMAGERY AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATING
TECHNIQUES ARE STILL KEYING IN ON 2 AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITHIN THE
LARGER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD. ONE EXTENDS FROM AROUND DOUGLAS
COUNTY TO ROUGHLY LINCOLN/UNION COUNTIES NEAR THE NW IA BORDER WITH
AUTOMATED ESTIMATES IN THE 2.5-4.5" RANGE FOR THE PAST 3-6 HOURS. THE
SECOND SWATH EXTENDS IN NW TO SE AXIS FROM AROUND POTTER/HYDE COUNTIES
TO BEADLE/KINGSBURY COUNTIES. ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 2-3" RANGE FOR THIS
AREA IN THE PAST 3-6 HOURS BUT WOULD EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS SINCE
AUTOMATED TECHNIQUES MAY NOT BE ADJUSTING ENOUGH FOR WARMER CLOUD
TOPS/LOWER EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS THERE. OVERALL HAVE NOTED SOME RECENT
CLOUD TOP WARMING WITHIN THE COMPLEX AND NOT AS MANY LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN THE DETECTION NETWORK SO CELLS WITH RAIN RATES GREATER THAN 1.5"/HR
MAY NOT BE AS PREVALENT AS AN HOUR OR TWO AGO. STILL WITH THE RATHER
SATURATED LOWER LEVEL COLUMN PRESENT AND THE CONTINUED TENDENCY FOR CELL
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 850-700MB OVER
E SD BELIEVE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER E SD
DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WHILE ALSO GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
SW MN/NW IA AS THE BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR IGNITING THE CELLS WITH THE
MORE INTENSE RAIN RATES MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4485 9914 4468 9552 4245 9500 4255 9770
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