ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/02/07 2034Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12  2015Z  CK
.
LOCATION...W NEW MEXICO...E ARIZONA...
.
ATTN WFOS...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...CBRFC...
.
EVENT...TSTMS INCRG OVER SW/W NM..MAY EXPAND INTO E AZ
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...TSTMS HAVE SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT INCR IN
THE PAST 1-2 HRS OVER SW/W NM ACRS AN AREA FM THE SWRN COUNTIES NWD THRU
MC KINLEY COUNTY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP COOLING HAS OCCURRED
OVER GRANT AND CATRON COUNTIES..WITH CELL MERGERS  OCCURRING ...AND
MANUAL STLT EST FOR 1845Z-2015Z INDICATING 2" HAS OCCURRED.
.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST SFC CONVERGENCE IS CENTERED ALONG THE SE
AZ/SW NM BORDER AREA. FURTHER N..SOME SFC CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED AS
WELL..BUT MUCH WEAKER. NAM MODEL ALSO SHOWS CONVERGENCE AT THE 850/700
MB LEVELS. AT UPPR LEVELS..GOES WV IMAGERY AND WIND ANALYSIS SHOWS
EXTENSIVE UPPR LEVEL ANTICYLONIC FLOW..WHICH CONTINUES TO DRIVE COPIOUS
MOISTURE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FM TX/MX. WINDS ALOFT OVER THE CNVTN
ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...INDICATING TSTMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. WITH
THE BEST CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER SW NM..AND THE NUMEROUS CELLS
ATTM..ADDITIONAL MERGERS AND EXPANSION OF CNVTN IS LIKELY. ESPECIAL
CONCERN FOR CATRON/GRANT/HIDALGO/SIERRA/LUNA COUNTIES IN NM..WHERE
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" ARE LIKELY.
.
OVER E AZ..SOME WARM TOP CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER COCHISE/GREENLEE AND
SRN APACHE COUNTIES..AND IT IS QUITE PSBL THAT OUTFLOW FM NM STMS MAY
FURTHER ENHANCE THE CURRENT SCT CNVTN OVER SE/E AZ.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3663 10835 3478 10801 3137 10727 3108 10917 3656 10941
3652 10859
.
NNNN