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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/02/07 0510Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0502Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...TEXAS...NEW MEXICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR MARTIN COUNTY
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER W CNTRL TX
HAS CONTINUED A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT THIS EVENING AND IS CENTERED NEAR
MARTIN COUNTY.  OVER THE LAST HOUR CONCERN IS THAT CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT
HAS BEGUN TO BUILD UPSTREAM SLIGHTLY INDICATING UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT.
THIS APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH A STRENGTHENING OF SE 85H LLJ ON
LOCAL VWPS WHICH HAS INCREASED BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORT
INTO THE AREA WHILE ALSO FOCUSING THE LL CONVERGENCE.
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MOST RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN OF RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS FROM
E ANDREWS COUNTY EXTENDING E THROUGH MARTIN AND N MIDLAND TO W HOWARD AND
NW GLASSCOCK COUNTIES.  EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA WAS AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE
OVERSHOOTING TOP NEAR CENTERED NEAR MARTIN COUNTY.  CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
WERE AN INCREDIBLE -83C WHICH WAS WELL OVERSHOOTING THE ELT OF -73C ON
0Z MAF SOUNDING.  THE COMBINATION OF THE INTENSE UPDRAFTS, DEEP ABOVE
0C LAYER TO PROMOTE WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND LITTLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES OF BETWEEN 1-3"/HR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MERGING/OVERSHOOTING TOPS NEAR SE MARTIN/N MIDLAND/NW GLASSCOCK COUNTIES.
UPSTREAM 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS RAISES THE THREAT THAT CONVECTION WILL
TRY TO REDEVELOP UPSTREAM AND SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS IS INDICATED BY
COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER S LEA COUNTY.  DO EVENTUALLY BELIEVE THAT SE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS BEST BOUNDARY RELATIVE CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION WHICH WILL TRY TO FORCE A SE MOVEMENT WHICH COULD SPREAD HEAVY
RAIN THREAT TOWARDS REAGAN/IRION COUNTIES.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3284 10239 3249 10138 3197 10084 3112 10136 3142 10250
3199 10356 3259 10387
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