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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/01/07 1936Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12  1915Z  CK
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LOCATION...NEBRASKA...N KANSAS/NE COLORADO...
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ATTN WFOS...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...
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EVENT...TSTMS INCRG AS FRONTAL BAND PUSHES SWD
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCR IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ACRS AN AREA FM NEB PANHANDLE TO SE SD. WRN END OF CNVTN OVER
THE PANHANDLE IS SHOWING LTL MOVEMENT ATTM..WHILE CNVTN OVER SRN/SE NEB IS
PUSHING STEADILY SWD. GOES SOUNDER TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THAT SW-NE PW PLUME
COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL BAND HAS NOW MERGED WITH S-N SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME EXTENDING FM GULFMEX THRU CENTRAL PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. PW'S
OVER NEB AND KS RANGE UP TO 1.8-2". ADDITIONALLY..GOES SOUNDER SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT INCR IN INSTABILITY WITH LI' IN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE. THESE
FACTORS ALONE WOULD FAVOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BUT IN ADDITION..GOES
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CNVTN WILL BE PUSHING INTO SW-NE CU FIELD WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FM SW NEB THRU NE NEB/SE SD...WHICH IS ALSO COINCIDENT
WITH STRONG LL THETA-E RIDGE AXES. EVEN THOUGH..WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WRN NEB PANHANDLE..THE CNVTN IS PRESSING SWD..THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
PROGRESSION WILL SLOW LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS IT REACHES SRN/SE NEB AND
NRN KS BORDER AREA. LL PROFILER DATA OVER N KS DURING THE PAST FEW HRS
HAS SHOWN WINDS BACKING AROUND FM SWRLY TO S AND SERLY DIRECTION. IF THE
CNVTN DOES SLOW DOWN UPON REACHING THIS AREA THEN..WITH THE HIGH PW'S
INDICATED BY GOES SOUNDER AND WITH THE CURRENT CNVCTV INTENSIFICATION
TREND..HVY RAINFALL TOTALS CAN OCCUR INVOF SRN NEB/N KS TONIGHT.
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IN THE SHORTER TERM..AT THE LEAST..HVY DOWNBURSTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME IS LIKELY OVER NRN THRU CENTRAL NEB. AS MENTIONED ABOVE..THE STMS
IN THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE..SCOTTS BLUFF/BANNER AND MORRILL COUNTIES JAVE
BEEN MOVG SLOWLY S. MANUAL STLT EST BTWN 1715Z-1915Z FOR SCOTTS BLUFF
COUNTY YIELDED 1.5" OR MORE. LATEST IMAGE SHOWS NEW CELL DEVELOPING TO
THE S..ALONG SW NEB PANHANDLE/SE WY BORDER. IT IS LIKELY THAT A MERGER
WILL OCCUR HERE WITHIN THE NEXT HR AS THE STMS TO THE N DRIFT SWD..WHICH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2" OR MORE ANTICIPATED. SOME BACKBUILDING OF CNVTN
INTO SE WY/N CO MAY OCCCUR..AS GOES IR AND VIS IMAGERY SHOW CU/TCU
BAND DEVELOPING.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4253 9699 4020 9636 4027 10339 4243 10352
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