ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/30/07 1432Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 1415Z	DS
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LOCATION...MISSOURI...KANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...HVY RAINS IN E KS/W MO
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MOSTLY WARM TOP CELLS THAT HAVE JUST
RECENTLY BEGAN TO DEVELOP CORES WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS BELOW -60C HAVE
BEEN PRODUCING MOD/HVY RAINS OVER E KS FOR SEVERAL HRS AND HAVE MOVED
INTO WRN MO AS WELL. OF MOST CONCERN IS THE W-ENE ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS
FROM WILSON COUNTY KS TO ST. CLAIR COUNTY MO. LIGHTNING DATA ALONG WITH
IR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS IS WHERE STRONGEST STORMS ARE SEEN PARTICULARLY
IN NEOSHO/N CRAWFORD/S BOURBON COUNTIES. SFC OBS SHOW KCNU JUST PICKED
UP 1.36" IN THE HOUR ENDING 1352Z AND THIS WAS PRIOR TO THE MERGER THAT
JUST OCCURRED NEAR THE NEOSHO/CRAWFORD COUNTY BORDER. ESTIMATE THAT 2-3"
OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED FROM THE CELLS WITH THE MAX WHERE THE MERGER OCCURRED
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST SFC MOISTURE CNVG IS
OVER THE WRN MO COUNTIES NE OF KJLN. THETA-E AXIS RUNS NWD THROUGH ERN KS
WHERE STRONGEST CELLS ARE SEEN AND STLT WINDS SHOW SLIGHT UPPER LVL DVG
PRESENT OVER EXTREME E CENTRAL KS INTO W CENTRAL MO ACCOUNTING FOR THE
MOD SFC MOISTURE CNVG THERE. WITH PW VALUES OVER 2"..LOW WARM CLOUD TOPS
PROVIDING EFFICIENT RAINFALL..AND 12Z SGF RAOB SHOWING MORE OF A UNIFORM
WRLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER THAN THE TOP SOUNDING TO THE N..EXPECT THAT
HVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE..SLOWLY PUSHING A LITTLE FARTHER EWD INTO W MO
AS WELL AS SPREADING SLIGHTLY SEWD. RAIN RATES WILL PROBABLY BE BETWEEN
1-2"/HR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATES IN TSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3926 9876 3883 9333 3734 9336 3786 9902
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