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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/30/07 0016Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2345Z GG
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LOCATION...VIRGINIA...
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ATTN WFOS...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
ATTN RFCS...MARFC...SERFC...
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EVENT...DEVELOPING MCS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV LOOP SHOWS DARKENING ACROSS VA AS MAIN
CORE OF JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO NC...WITH THE VORT LOBE
ROTATING ACROSS NY BEGINNING TO SHEAR OUT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SSWLY
FLOW OFF SHORE... HENCE DEFORMING THE VORT SW ALONG INTO MD/VA AIDING
SOME LARGE SCALE ACCENT OVER THE DISCUSSED AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED INTO 2 CLUSTERS ALONG A LINE ACROSS CENTRAL VA WHERE SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED BASED ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
FIELDS.  THE FIRST DEVELOPING OVER CHARLES CITY THEN BACKBUILDING AGAINST
THE FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER CHESTERFIELD TO KING WILLIAM COUNTY
AS SEEN BY THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND IR TEMPS COOLING TO -60C. STILL
THE MOTION IS SLOW UPWIND AS CORFIDI VECTORS ARE DIAGNOSED AT 5KT OR
LESS...SO PERSISTENT HVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN SEEN WITH THESE CELLS AS GOES
SOUNDER CONTINUES TO INDICATE PWS OVER 1.8".  BASED ON OVERSHOOTING
TOPS AND IR TEMPS WITH HIGH MOISTURE...SATELLITE TECHNIQUES ESTIMATE
RATES AROUND 2"HR THOUGH TOTALS HAVE ONLY BEEN ESTIMATED AT 1.5-2.5"
SINCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE CORES TO THE N AND NW.

A SECOND MCS DEVELOPING FURTHER UPSTREAM ON THE SAME SFC BOUNDARY OVER
ABLEMARLE COUNTY IS NEWER ON THE DEVELOPMENT SCHEME...BUT NEW DEVELOPING
OVERSHOOTING TOPS HINTS AND FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE CLUSTER AS IT APPEARS
TO BE REMAIN STATIONARY.  TOPS ARE A BIT WARMER AND SOUNDER VALUES
ARE A BIT LOWER AT 1.6" SO RATES SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER AS WELL AROUND
1.5-1.75"/HR THOUGH THE COMPACT NATURE OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS SEEN IN THE
LAST VISIBLE IMAGES...GIVES THE IMPRESSION THERE MAY BE SOME MERGERS
OCCURRING WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL QUICK BURST OF .5-1.0"
TO THE RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLY REACHING 2" AS OF 2345Z IMAGE.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3843 7935 3770 7611 3662 7642 3769 7963
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