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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/28/07 2050Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 2030Z GG
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LOCATION...SE ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...TWC...PSR...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...
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EVENT...COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE AZ
HAVE BEGUN TO CLUSTER/MERGE TOGETHER INTO A LARGER COMPLEX.  WV LOOP
SHOWS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW OVER W TX/E NM WITH A LOBE ROTATING THROUGH
THE WESTERN SIDE OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER.  ASSOCIATED JET STREAK OVER SE
AZ INTO MX WITH SOME GOOD CYCLONIC CURVATURE INCREASING UVVS FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS.  THIS ALONG WITH VERY VIS LOOP SHOWING CU FEATURES
TURNING EASTWARD THEN ESEWARD INTO THE DEVELOPING COLD TOP THUNDERSTORM
AREAS OVER SE PINAL AND THE N-S COUNTY LINE BETWEEN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ AND
COCHISE COUNTIES.  PWS OF 1.4" PER RUC ANALYSIS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
WITH THIS WESTERLY FLOW FROM AN AREA WITH PWS RANGING AROUND 1.8".

CELLS CONTINUE TO CYCLE WITH CORES BECOMING WISPY NORTH OF THE MAIN
COMPLEX AS OPPOSED TO SE AZ WHERE THE FIRST CELLS OF THE AFTERNOON
(OVER THE LAST 1-2HRS) HAVE DONE A VERY GOOD JOB OF FULL SATURATING THE
ENTIRE NEAR STORM COLUMN FOR MORE EFFICIENT IN HVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATIONS SHOW MAXIMA OF 1.6" OVER SW COCHISE
BETWEEN 1800-2000Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL .5-1.0" OVER THE LAST HOUR (PER
INSTANTANEOUS RATES...). TOTALS IN SE PINAL ARE AT .7 WITH AN ADDITIONAL
1-1.25" IN THE LAST HOUR AS WELL.

PROPAGATION OF THE COMPLEX TOWARD  GOOD 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE WEST SHOULD HELP TRANSLATE THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INTO W PIMA INCREASING FF THREAT THERE.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3338 10948 3124 10973 3110 11139 3320 11116
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