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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/28/07 1647Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 1615Z	DS
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LOCATION...MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT...CONNECTICUT...
LOCATION...NEW YORK...
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ATTN WFOS...BOX...OKX...ALY...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...
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EVENT...LOCALLY HVY RAIN FROM TRAINING CELLS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VERY WARM TOPPED CELLS WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPS RANGING FROM -30C TO -45C CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS
IN NW CT AND CENTRAL MA. UPPER LOW OVER ERN NY STATE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS NEWD WRAPPING RICH MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC NWD ACROSS MUCH
OF NEW ENGLAND. PW VALUES ARE VERY NEAR 2" AND DWPTS IN THE AREA ARE
IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S. STLT WINDS SHOW GOOD UPPER LVL DVG OVER W
CT/W MA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE S/SWRLY FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. ALL THESE FACTORS POINT TO LOW WARM TOP CELLS THAT ARE HVY RAIN
PRODUCERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS IN THE BAND
OF THE UPPER LOW. ON VIS IMAGERY THIS BAND IS SEEN EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO WESTCHESTER CO NY AND BELIEVE WILL BEGIN TO SEE CELLS ORIGINATE A
LITTLE FARTHER SW ALONG THE BAND THAN PREVIOUSLY. A SECOND BAND IS SEEN
FORMING TO THE W ON STLT/RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHES FROM SRN VT INTO
THE POCONOS IN NE PA. THIS SECOND BAND WILL EITHER EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER
AS THE PRIMARY BAND OR IT COULD MERGE WITH THE FIRST BAND. STILL UNSURE
OF THIS THOUGH STLT TRENDS HAVE BEEN LEANING TWDS 2ND POSSIBILITY AS
FIRST BAND IS NOT MOVING MUCH BUT CELLS ALONG THE 2ND BAND ARE MARCHING
EWD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CNVG INCREASING BETWEEN THE TWO
BANDS WITH A MAX OVER WRN CT WHERE BELIEVE MOST CELLS WILL INITIATE THIS
AFTERNOON TRAINING NEWD. TYPICAL RAINFALL RATES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE BETWEEN .6-1"/HR WITH SOME RATES OF UP TO 1.5-2"/HR WHERE EMBEDDED
TSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4340 7311 4291 7144 4088 7356 4184 7426
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