ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...DATE/TIME  07/27/07   1920Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G11  1900Z  CK
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LOCATION...ARIZONA...S NEVADA...SW UTAH
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ATTN WFOS...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SLC
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...CNRFC...
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EVENT...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NW QUARTER OF AZ
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ALTHOUGH TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE EVENT AREA..THE MOST NOTICEABLE CONCENTRATION
ATTM IS OVER CONCONINO  AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS IS SHOWING SFC CONVERGENCE BULLSYE. A CELL MERGER HAS TAKEN PLACE
OVER SRN CONCONINO..NR/JUST W OF FLG.  OTHER MERGERS HAVE TAKEN PLACE
OVER YAVAPAI. MANUAL STLT EST INDICATE THAT THAT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN OVER THESE LOCATIONS..WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER S CONCONINO. GOES STLT
WIND ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WINDS ALOFT ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE..THUS CURRENT
TSTMS AND ADDITIONAL STMS THAT DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN AND EVE WILL
BE SLOW MOVERS. EXTENSIVE SE-NE PW PLUME..PER GOES SOUDNER..EXTENDS FM
MX/S NM TO S NV. VALUES WITHIN THE PLUMES RANGE UP TO 1.5-2". THUS..THE
COMBINATION OF SLOW MOVG STMS/HIGH PW'S/CELL MERGERS CAN PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2-3" FOR THOSE STMS THAT LINGER MORE THAN AN HR. GOES SOUNDER
SHOWS INSTABILITY STEADILY INCRG AS WELL.
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ATTM..OTHER WARMER TOP CELLS ARE DEVELOPING OVER MOHAVE COUNTY..AND WITH
INSTABILITY INCRG THERE WOULD EXPECT NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF THE STMS
TO INCR..ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CELL MERGERS.
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S NV/SW UT...VERY WARM TOP TSTM HAS DEVELOPED OVER N CENTRAL CLARK
COUNTY/NV. NOT SURE OF EXTENT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER CLARK COUNTY FOR
THIS AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER..WITH NW EXTENT OF PW PLUME AND INSTABILITY INCRG
OVER SRN NV..THIS LEAVES OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME HVY TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. ALSO..GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS BACK
EDGE OF WV PLUME OVER SRN NV. OVER SW UT..SOME CU TCU HAS DEVELOPED..AND
WITH CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE..ALONG WITH SFC CONVERGENCE EXTENDING
INTO SW UT..SOME HVY TSTM DEVELOPMENT PSBL HERE AS WELL.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3800 11561 3800 11073 3424 11113 3383 11332 3458 11394
3579 11542
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