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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/25/07 2037Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 2015Z  GOES1-2 2030Z GG
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LOCATION...ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...
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EVENT...EXPANDING MCS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS A VERY COLD MCS
HAS DEVELOPED OVER NW MARICOPA AND SW YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN AZ. THIS MCS
IS SUPPORTED BY A VERY DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
WITH VERY HIGH VALUES ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO R VALLEY IN EXCESS OF
2.2" PER GOES SOUNDER.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO VERY WEAK WITH SHEAR
DEFORMATION OVER THE MCS AS FLOW IS ALLOW TO DISPERSE NORTHWARD UNDER
THE WEAK INFLUENCE OF THE SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW OVER SC CA OR TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
DUMPING ABOUT 2"/HR OVER A SMALL AREA THEN SHIFTING AND REDEVELOPING ON
THE WEAK OUTFLOW OF THE PRIOR CELL...BUT SINCE IT IS NOT VERY DRY THE
DISTANCE BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT IS MUCH LESS...WHICH SHOULD ADD MORE RAIN
INTO THE SAME GULLIES AND WATERSHEDS.  OVER THE LAST HOUR THE OVERSHOOTING
TOPS CONTINUE TO BUILD MAINLY S AND WEST AS SFC/LOW LEVEL FLOW APPEARS
TO BE ISALLOBARICALLY TURNING TOWARD THE COMPLEX PER CU FEEDERS...WHICH
EVENTUALLY AS THEY REACH THE OUTFLOW.  SO FAR MAXIMUM SATELLITE ESTIMATES
OF 2.2" HAVE BEEN MANUALLY ESTIMATED OVER NW MARICOPA WHILE AUTMATED
TECHNIQUES ARE LAGGING AT 1.5"

OTHER AREAS OF INTEREST INCLUDE STRONG CELLS ALONG THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN NE AND NW YAVAPAI ...THESE CELLS ARE NOT AS COLD
AND APPEAR TO GLACIATE MUCH QUICKER MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO LOWER
MOISTURE AND WEAKER CAPES...THOUGH PACKING ENOUGH PUNCH FOR ESTIMATES
OF 1.0" OVER THE LAST 1.5 HRS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3548 11341 3482 11125 3309 11262 3314 11382
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