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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/23/07 2030Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11: 2000Z
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LOCATION...SW NEW MEXICO...ARIZONA...SW UTAH...SE NEVADA...
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ATTN WFOS...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...
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RESENT FOR CORRECT TIME OF AUTOESTIMATOR IN LAST FEW LINES
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EVENT...SCATTERED TSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVEREAGE
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE PLUME THAT
IS THROUGH AZ/UT/NV HAS BEEN GETTING SQUEEZED INTO A MORE NARROW AREA
OVER THE PAST 6-8 HRS. SYSTEM DROPPING SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS
HAS PUSHED RIDGE WWD OVER E CO/E NM/W TX AND ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR
WRAPPING UP INTO SW AZ/SRN CA IS RESULTING IN A MORE FOCUSED AREA FOR
MOD/HVY RAINS. CNVTN HAS FORMED ALONG THE MTNS AND HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING
SINCE DOING SO. MCV SEEN ON VIS IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE UT/NV
BORDER AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR NEWLY INITIATED CNVTN IN IRON COUNTY/UT
AND LINCOLN COUNTY NV. EXPECT THAT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
AS MCV ROLLS WWD OVER THE MTNS. ESTIMATE THAT .4-.6" HAS FALLEN FROM
THESE STORMS SO FAR.
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HOWEVER AZ IS WHERE MOST OF THE ACTION IS CURRENTLY AS SERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO PULL RICH MOISTURE TO THE N...THOUGH IT IS BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN SOME DRY AIR FROM W TX/SE NM THAT IS CUTTING INTO THE PLUME IN
THE SERN PART OF THE STATE. EVEN WITH THIS HAPPENING..CIRA/CO STATE TPW
PRODUCT AT HTTP://AMSU.CIRA.COLOSTATE.EDU/GPSTPW/ SHOWS PW VALUES ALREADY
AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND NEARING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN SOME
AREAS. ACTUAL VALUES ARE NEAR 1.3-1.5" IN N AZ/SW UT/S NV AND 1.6-1.9
FARTHER S IN AZ. SLIGHTLY DVG UPPER FLOW IS SEEN FROM STLT WINDS OVER
THE MOGOLLON RIM INVOF S COCONINO/YAVAPI COUNTIES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
REVEALS A CNVG AREA OF MOISTURE FROM SRN APACHE COUNTY ENE TO JUST SW
OF KFLG. BELIEVE MERGERS WILL BE OCCURRING FOR NEXT FEW HRS AS FLOW
SQUEEZES THEM INTO THEM THIS AREA. CLUSTER OF CELLS IN SE AZ HAS SHOWN
VERY RAPID DVLPMT OVER PAST 2 HRS AND IS EXPANDING TO THE W THROUGH
SRN PIMA COUNTY BUT A MERGER ALSO APPEARS LIKELY BETWEEN THIS CLUSTER
AND ANOTHER THAT HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER NW COCHISE COUNTY...PROBABLY
JUST SE OF TUS. ESTIMTES FROM THE AUTOESTIMATOR LOOK FAIRLY GOOD FOR
PAST HR ENDING 2002Z WITH EXCEPTION OF UNDERESTIMATED WARM TOP CELLS
IN YAVAPAI/COCONINO COUNTY..BELIEVE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 1-1.5"
HAVE FALLEN THERE. SEE WEB ADDRESS FOR ESTIMATES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3910 11129 3094 10780 3028 11070 3865 11624
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