ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/21/07 1740Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1732Z  JS
.
LOCATION...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
.
ATTN WFOS...EWX...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...TRENDS CONCERNING LARGE BATCHES OF CONVECTION ACROSS S CENT TO
SW TX.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE
INDICATING AROUND 3-5" TOTALS FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MAVERICK/KINNEY/UVALDE COUNTIES WITH 5-7" ESTIMATED DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. TRENDS WITH THE EASTERN MOST MCS HAVE SHOWN A WESTWARD SHIFT TO
THE COLDEST TOPS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND INTO MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE
MCV NOTED IN COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP NEAR THE RIO GRANDE IN NW MAVERICK
COUNTY. STILL HAVE THE REMAINING SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS
OCCURRING OVER THE COUNTIES AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING THIS
MORNING BUT AT LEAST THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF AN APPARENT DECREASE
IN RAINFALL INTENSITY THERE. FOR THE WESTERN MCS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO
PRESIDIO/BREWSTER COUNTIES, HAVE SEEN CLOUD TOP WARMING AND FRAGMENTING
OF THE CORE OF THE ORIGINAL MCS. ADDITIONAL ENHANCED HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
CELLS THOUGH HAVE POPPED UP ON ITS PERIPHERY OVER PRESIDIO COUNTY WHICH
HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING WITH AUTOMATED ESTIMATES INCREASING TO OVER 1"
TO POSSIBLY 1.5-2.0" IN THE PAST HOUR. STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH OUTFLOW
FROM WHATS LEFT OF THIS MCS AND THE WESTWARD MOVING EASTERN MCS WILL
MERGE INITIALLY SOUTHWEST OF DEL RIO OVER MEXICO BUT ALSO OCCURRING
QUICKLY AFTER THAT IN SPOTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH POSSIBLY INCLUDING
TERRELL/CROCKETT/VAL VERDE/BREWSTER/PECOS COUNTIES. SOME CELLS ALREADY
APPEAR TO BE ENHANCING OVER PORTIONS OF THOSE COUNTIES SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT TAKES PLACE
AS WEAK STEERING CURRENTS COULD LEAD TO GREATER THAN 2" RAINS IN LESS
THAN AN HOUR.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3156 10379 3102 10100 2955 9860 2776 10101 2954 10517
.
NNNN