ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/21/07 1440Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1415Z  JS
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LOCATION...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...EWX...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MCS GRADUALLY SPREADING TO THE WEST.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...COLD TOPPED MCS IN VERY MOIST TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE WEST OR WNW. AUTOMATED
SATELLITE ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES ARE SHOWING AROUND 4.5" MAX TOTALS/3 HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MEDINA/UVALDE COUNTIES WITH 6-8" TOTALS/6 HOURS. 3
HOUR TOTALS OF GREATER THAN 3" WERE ALSO ESTIMATED FOR MAVERICK/S KINNEY
COUNTIES. THESE ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES THOUGH DO SOMETIMES OVERESTIMATE
IN VERY MOIST/COLD TOP SITUATIONS FOR PERIODS LONGER THAN 3 HOURS. IR
TRENDS HAVE SHOWN SOME SLOW WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE COLDEST TOPS WITHIN
THE MCS ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL INDICATES GOOD TEXTURE WITH SOME
OVERSHOOTING TOPS STILL HANGING ON TO THE SAME GENERAL SPOTS WHICH HAVE
ALREADY RECEIVED THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ESTIMATES. RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP
ALSO SUGGESTS GREATEST REFLECTIVITIES REMAINING OVER THESE COUNTIES. HAVE
ALSO SEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT TO THE SMALLER MCS OVER MEXICO WHICH SHOULD
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PRESIDIO/BREWSTER COUNTIES WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 3-4"/3
HOURS WITH THIS COMPLEX BUT THAT APPEARED TO BE WHEN IT WAS NOT MOVING
AS QUICKLY AS IT IS NOW. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS BELIEVE THERE IS A
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE 2 COMPLEXES WILL INTERACT OR POSSIBLY EVEN MERGE
RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS SW TX
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE 2 COMPLEXES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A VERY VOLATILE SITUATION FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
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WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OVER W NM WITH COMPLEXES
LOCATED IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. 12Z RAOB DATA ALONG
WITH CURRENT GOES SOUNDER DATA/SURFACE OBS SHOW TREMENDOUS MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. IN ADDITION MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES COMPLEXES ARE MOVING
INTO 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOULD BE
AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3125 9939 2934 9773 2783 10071 2988 10262
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