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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/19/07 2335Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2315Z  JS
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LOCATION...CENT TO S CENT COLORADO/NE NEW MEXICO
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ATTN WFOS...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...CBRFC...
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EVENT...CLOUD TOPS BECOMING COLDER AS STORMS BECOME LARGER AND MORE
CONCENTRATED IN BROKEN LINE FROM AROUND FT COLLINS TO NE NEW MEXICO.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HAVE SEEN A DEFINITE COOLING OF CLOUD
TOPS ACCOMPANYING CELLS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH A NUMBER OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS ALSO NOTED IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. WESTERLY OUTFLOW FROM A NUMBER OF CELLS WHICH HAVE BEEN POPPING
UP FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER CENT CO MOUNTAINS HAS NOW APPARENTLY COMBINED
WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO FORM A FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE AXIS
FOR STRENGTHENING EXISTING ACTIVITY AS WELL AS CREATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SPOTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH
POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE DENVER METRO AREA. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT ALL
THAT GREAT WITH 1.0-1.3" GOES SOUNDER DERIVED PW VALUES JUST EAST OF
THE FRONT RANGE BUT EASTERLY UPSLOPE AND THE PRESENCE OF A NEARBY SFC
BOUNDARY WHICH PASSED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IS VERY CAPABLE
OF WRINGING OUT WHATEVER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. ALSO CELLS ARE VERY
SLOW MOVING RESULTING IN A MOISTENING OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. TAKING
THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND BASED ON CLOUD TRENDS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATING
TECHNIQUES BELIEVE THAT 1.5"/HR RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY WITH MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT CELLS ACROSS THIS REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF UP TO
2.0"/HR AND EVEN HIGHER RATES WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. AUTOMATED
SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE KEYED IN ON THE AREA INCLUDING HUERFANO AND
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES OF S CO AS WELL AS COLFAX COUNTY OF NE
NM WHERE AROUND 2" HAS BEEN ESTIMATED SO FAR. CERTAINLY BELIEVE THAT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 3" ARE QUITE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ALSO,
ESTIMATES OF 1.5" TO NEAR 2" HAVE OCCURRED WITH ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE
WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF W PUEBLO/W AND SW EL PASO/E FREMONT/SE TELLER
COUNTIES. RECENT TRENDS INDICATE A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOVEMENT TO THIS
BATCH WITH ALSO SOME NORTHWARD EXPANSION WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
TO SEE IF IT LEADS TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE DENVER METRO
AREA. FOR THE ACTIVITY AROUND HUERFANO COUNTY IN ADDITION TO THE NEARLY
STATIONARY CELLS STILL DROPPING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THAT COUNTY, HAVE
SEEN SOME BUILDING TO THE N OR NNW TOWARD CUSTER/E PUEBLO COUNTIES SO
THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT WILL MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BATCH
OVER FREMONT COUNTY BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THERE. FINALLY, OVER
NE NM (COLFAX) AND FAR S CO (LAS ANIMAS) CELL MOVEMENT HAS BEEN VERY
SLOW AND ERRATIC SO HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES THERE AS WELL.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3993 10430 3646 10395 3637 10555 3984 10595
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