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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/19/07 1900Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1845Z  JS
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LOCATION...W AND CENT WEST VIRGINIA/S OHIO/N AND E KENTUCKY
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ATTN WFOS...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...
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EVENT...CONVECTION ACROSS S OH/N AND NE KY/W WV BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZING WHICH COULD LEAD TO CELL TRAINING AND EXPANDING HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ACTIVITY DURING PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN
IR/VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
SE IN/S OH/N AND NE KY/W WV AS CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD SFC BASED CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG THERMAL/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY. LIFT IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF
MID/UPPER IMPULSE MOVING TO THE SE NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AS WELL AS
FROM UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/SPEED MAX DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR LOOP AND
GOES HIGH DENSITY WIND PLOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THROUGH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THE GOES SOUNDER WAS ABLE TO PICK OUT SOME SPOTS
OF 1.8"-2.0" PW VALUES WHICH SUPPORTS 12Z RAOB DATA FROM WILMINGTON
OHIO. THIS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ALONG WITH AXIS OF LOWER 70F
SFC DEWPOINTS SUPPORTS RAIN RATES OF 1.5"/HR TO POSSIBLY BRIEFLY AS HIGH
AS 2.0"/HR WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING AS AREA BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ALSO LIKELY OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF MO/S IL/S IN AS PER RECENT SWOMCD. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL TRAINING OVER PARTS OF KY/S OH/WV AS CONVECTIVE BATCHES
WOULD BE ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW FOR A TIME. RECENTLY
ISSUED QPFERD FROM HPC ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THIS REGION FOR AN EXCESSIVE RISK.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3931 8065 3792 8096 3776 8533 3927 8506
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