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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/19/07 1800Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12:1745Z SSMI:1017Z AMSU:1440Z  JS
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO
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ATTN WFOS...SJU
ATTN RFCS...
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EVENT...RATHER WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE WITH BATCHES OF COLD TOPPED
CONVECTION MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WNW WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT AMSU DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS
AGO(1440Z) SHOWED AREAL AVERAGE MICROWAVE RAIN RATES WITH AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS JUST TO THE ESE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OF
WELL OVER 1"/HR WHICH IS CERTAINLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THAT THIS IS SIMPLY
A SNAP SHOT AREAL AVERAGE. SINCE THAT TIME AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY OR OUTFLOW FROM IT HAS MOVED TO THE NW AND ACROSS VIEQUES
AND INTO WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE AT LEAST A FEW CELLS HAVE FLARED
UP. VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE (MICROWAVE PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2") AND COLD
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES SUPPORT RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR. HOWEVER,
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR LOOP DOES SHOW THE CONVECTION OVER PUERTO
RICO IS MOVING TO THE WEST WITH THE CORES OF THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY
NOT SITTING OVER ANY ONE SPOT SO FAR FOR VERY LONG. HOWEVER SFC DATA AND
THE CU FIELD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND SHOWS CONVERGENCE WHICH
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE CELLS TOP POP UP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ISLAND IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
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THE OVERALL PICTURE SHOWS A RATHER WELL ORGANIZED AND LARGE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE AREA AROUND PUERTO RICO WITH GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
ALOFT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, THE WESTWARD MOVING
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO/HAITI SHOULD ACT TO STRENGTHEN THE
OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AND INCREASE THE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. IR TRENDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THE COVERAGE OF
COLDER CLOUD TOPS WITH ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF PUERTO RICO HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS TO PUERTO
RICO EITHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVEN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO
GUARANTEE THAT THE VERY ACTIVE COLD TOPPED ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE
ISLAND WILL REMAIN INTACT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES BY. AT THIS TIME
AFTER ANALYZING THE FACTORS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA IT DOES SEEM
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO EITHER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND/OR TONIGHT AS WAVE MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH PLACING THE ACTIVE
BANDS TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE OVER PUERTO RICO.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 1900 6800 1900 6500 1700 6500 1700 6800
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