ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/18/07 2010Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2002Z  JS
.
LOCATION...SW WISCONSIN/NW ILLINOIS/S MINNESOTA/NW TO E IOWA
.
ATTN WFOS...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
.
EVENT...CLOSELY MONITORING SATELLITE TRENDS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MCS
CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE ESE ACROSS NW IA/S MN AS IT HEADS TOWARD REGION
OF LOWER FFG VALUES FROM PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINS.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HAVE NOTICED SOME SLOW EXPANSION OF
COLDER/ACTIVE CLOUD TOPS DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS WITHIN RELATIVELY SMALL
MCS MOVING ACROSS NW IA/S MN. AT THIS POINT THE STEADY ESE MOVEMENT HAS
LIMITED THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATING
TECHNIQUES SHOWING AROUND 1-2" TOTALS ALONG PATH OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER
THERE IS CERTAINLY REASON TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WHICH
OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX SINCE THIS WOULD LIKELY ACT TO PROLONG
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ANY AFFECTED SPOT BECAUSE OF CELL TRAINING AND ALSO
INTENSIFY RAINFALL RATES DUE TO CELL MERGERS. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RADAR
COMPOSITE LOOPS BOTH NOW INDICATE NEW CELL FORMATION OCCURRING ALONG A
NARROW WEST-EAST LINE ACROSS NORTHERN IA WITH VISIBLE DATA ALSO SUGGESTING
A SE EXTENSION TO THIS ENHANCED CU LINE TOWARD THE AREA BETWEEN DUBUQUE
AND DAVENPORT. THIS MAY BE THE FIRST SIGN THAT RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE 1-2" ESTIMATES SO FAR AS THIS COMPLEX POTENTIALLY
EXPANDS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE ESE OR SE AT LEAST
VERY CLOSE TO IF NOT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAME GENERAL AREA WHICH WAS
AFFECTED BY EARLIER COMPLEXES.
.
CURRENT SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF LOW TO MID 70F TD'S AHEAD OF
MCS. THAT ALONG WITH MORNING RAOB DATA AND CURRENT GPS DATA INDICATING
PW VALUES AT LEAST IN THE 1.6-1.7" RANGE IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER (GOES
SOUNDER VALUES ARE NOT RELIABLE IN THE REGION DUE TO CLOUD COVER) SHOW
MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO SUPPORT 2"/HR PLUS RAIN RATES
WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF
A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE ND-SD BORDER WHICH IS
HELPING TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WV IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DIGGING
TROF OVER S CANADA WITH SIGNIFICANT DARKENING NOTED. GOES HIGH DENSITY
WIND PLOT DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ACROSS N MN/W GREAT LAKES REGION
ACCOMPANYING THIS DARKENING SLOT WHICH ALSO ADDS SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
CENT IA PROFILER SITE HAS SHOWN SOME BACKING TO LOW LEVEL FLOW AS COMPLEX
APPROACHES. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS THIS
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN SITUATION EVOLVES. ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC WILL
BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 4400 9563 4238 8976 4055 9068 4273 9638
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Graphic


-