ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/18/07 1304Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1245Z  GG
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LOCATION...EXT S TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...CRP...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...ONSHORE FLOW
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV LOOP SHOWS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE WEST OVER N COAHUILA WITH MANY SMALL VORT LOBES ALONG ROTATING
ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT EXTENDS ACORSS S TX INTO SW LA INTO THE
MAIN CIRC THEN AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE AND BACK EASTWARD.  THE MOST
RECENT OF THESE IS A SHORTWAVE AROUND MONTEREY,MX THAT HAS LEAD TO
GOOD HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE DISCUSSED AREA WITH GOOD LL ONSHORE FLOW.
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK BEHIND THE LOBE (DUE TO WWARD PROGRESSION
OF MAIN UL CYCLONE) WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LOBE AND INCREASE THE BROAD
ACCENT INVOF THE LOBE WHICH SHOULD HELP STRENGTHEN LL ONSHORE INFLOW
AS WELL.  ALREADY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS BROAD ACCENT
ACROSS EXT S TX WITH A WEAKENING/WARMING MCS ACROSS BRO CWA MAKING GOOD
PROGRESSION NORTHWARD FOR A QUICK BURST OF HVY RAIN...BUT LIMITED THREAT
FOR FLOODING.  HOWEVER FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD A LINE OF VERY COLD TOPPED
CELLS OFFSHORE WITH SOME OVERSHOOTING TOPS TCU DEVELOPING OVER NUECES
AND KLEBERG COUNTIES SEEN ON VIS SHOWS SIGNS OF SOME CONCERNS AS THE
ONSHORE FLOW/CELL MOTION VECTORES HAVE MORE OF A WNW COMPONENT THAT
MAY SUPPORT SOME TRAINING OF THESE STRONG STORMS.  TOPS HAVE COOLED TO
-70C IN PLACES WITH PWS OF 1.8-2.0" WHICH WOULD SUPPORT VERY RATES IN
EXCESS OF 2"/HR WITH HIGH RATES POSSIBLE SINCE THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE
INFLUX/CONVERGENCE TO THE CELLS PER SFC ANALYSIS FIELDS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2854 9827 2846 9660 2582 9718 2660 9916
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