ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/16/07 2002Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12 1945Z CK
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LOCATION...S MINNESOTA...IOWA...E SOUTH DAKOTA...
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ATTN WFOS...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...TSTMS MOVG OVER SD..MAY SPREAD HVY RAIN OVER IA THIS EVE/TONIGHT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...TSTMS OVER E SD/SW MN CONTINUE TO
MOVE SEWD AND INTENSIFY. THESE STMS ARE HEADING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT..WITH INCRG TEMPS/THETA-E/PW'S. CURRENT
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SW-NE SFC THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING ACRS NEB THRU
ERN IA.. WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH 850MB FCST THETA-E RIDGE. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS SFC CONVERGENCE MAX ACRS N CENTRAL/CENTRAL IA. CU/CU
BANDS PER VIS IMAGERY HAVE BEEN INCRG ACRS THE AREA FM NW MO THRU CENTRAL
IA/S MN..AS HAS INSTABILITY PER GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY.
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AS MENTIONED ABOVE..TSTMS OVER E SD/SW MN ARE MOVG STEADILY SEWD. THUS
..ANY HVY RAIN HAS BEEN SHORT-LIVED. HOWEVER..WITH LATEST STLT TRENDS
AND OTHER PARAMETERS DISCUSSED IN THE FIST PARA..THE CONCERN IS THAT
HVY TSTMS WILL FOCUS OVER IA AND PERHAPS S MN THIS EVE/TONIGHT. NOT ONLY
CONCERNED ABOUT THE CURRENT SD/MN TSTMS MOVG SEWD OVER THE AREA BUT ALSO
THE POSSIBILITY THAT OTHER STMS WILL FORM OUT AHEAD IT..RESULTING IN THE
EVOLUTION OF A LARGER COMPLEX AND HVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CURRENT GOES WIND
ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME DIRECTIONAL UPPR LVL WIND DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL
IA..WHICH WOULD ALSO FAVOR THIS SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ISSUE SUBSEQUENT SPENES MESSAGES IF THIS SCENARIO DOES INDEED PLAY OUT.
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REFER TO CORRESPONDING GRAPHIC AT WEB ADDRESS BELOW..IN APPX 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4587 9703 4401 9325 4238 9145 4179 9145 4162 9357 4335
9578 4510 9824 4531 9828
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