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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/11/07 0305Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0245Z  JS
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LOCATION...SE COLORADO/NE NEW MEXICO
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ATTN WFOS...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...VERY RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH SLOW MOVING AND MERGING
CELLS POSE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR SE CO/NE NM.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE CO/NE NM/NW TX WHERE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE BLOWUP HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ESPECIALLY DURING THE PAST
HOUR WITH NUMEROUS MERGING CELLS. ACTIVITY IS ALONG MOISTURE GRADIENT
BUT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW COMPONENT IS HELPING TO ADVECT BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATES PW
VALUES AROUND 1.3" IN NW TX PANHANDLE WHILE GPS PW TRENDS SHOW A STEADY
INCREASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THERE WITH VALUES NOW APPROACHING
1.4". AUTOMATED SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES ARE SHOWING
AROUND 1.0" IN THE PAST HALF HOUR TO HOUR FOR PORTIONS OF QUAY/HARDING
COUNTIES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE ACTIVITY AS
WELL AS THE VERY RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING/OVERSHOOTING TOPS WITH MERGING
CELLS EXPECT LOCALIZED TOTALS TO BE HIGHER THAN THIS WITH ESTIMATES
MORE LIKELY AT LEAST CLOSER TO 1.5" DURING THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES. ALSO
MONITORING MORE CELLS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY OF FAR
SE CO WHICH ARE ALSO INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE TOWARD NORTHERN
UNION COUNTY. MORE CELL MERGERS ARE LIKELY IN THIS REGION AS WELL WITH
EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 2 LARGER BATCHES TO CONSOLIDATE WHICH WOULD
THEN PROLONG THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3752 10325 3517 10264 3431 10510 3732 10459
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