ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/10/07 0740Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0732Z  HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...TSA...FWD...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...
.
EVENT...QUASI-STATIONARY/REGENERATING MCS OVER CNTRL OK
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A NEARLY
QUASI-STATIONARY MCS HAS BEEN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK FOR THE
LAST FEW HOURS.  CELL ADVECTION HAS BEEN BEEN GENERALLY OFF TO THE ESE
AT A FAIRLY STEADY PACE BUT CONVECTIVE REGENERATION HAS CONTINUALLY BEEN
OCCURRING ON THE UPWIND EDGE OF SYSTEM TO INDUCE A LARGE PROPAGATION
VECTOR FOR LITTLE NET MOVEMENT.  REGENERATION APPEARS TO BE DUE IN LARGE
PART TO MODEST SWRLY 85H LLJ ON VWPS BEING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED OVER
HIGHLY PACKED GRADIENT ON 310K THETA-SURFACE.  THIS GRADIENT MAY HAVE
BEEN LOCALLY ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER MCS THAT IS NOW DISSIPATING
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
.
BEST SATELLITE SIGNATURE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM A NEARLY
STATIONARY WEDGE OF ENHANCEMENT OVER SE KINGFISHER/E CANADIAN COUNTIES
AND THEN EXTENDING SE TOWARDS THE MOST ENHANCED CONVECTION NOW WORKING
IT'S WAY THROUGH POTTAWATOMIE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES.  THE COMBINATION
OF TRAINING/REGENERATING CONVECTION ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ON LOCAL RAOBS/GOES SOUNDER (2.00"+) AND MODEST CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1-2"/HR IN
ANY OF THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
LL CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE ORIENTED FAVORABLY WITH INSTABILITY RESERVOIR
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY (GOES DPI DERIVED -10 LI'S) TO CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO REGENERATE OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK AND THEN
SUBSEQUENTLY TRAIN DOWNSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
OK.  BELIEVE LOCALIZED RAINFALL OF 1-3" IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z
BEFORE LLJ EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND VEERS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MCS DECAY.
CURRENTLY WOULD THINK THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AN APPROXIMATE AXIS FROM THE OKC AREA SE TOWARDS AQR.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3654 9711 3633 9636 3522 9499 3424 9518 3370 9590 3420
9810 3560 9888 3630 9821
.
NNNN