ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/07/07 0659Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0645Z  AUTOESTIMATOR THRU 0632Z GG
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LOCATION...S TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MCS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WEAK STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER N COAHUILA
IS STARTING TO SHEAR OUT SW TO NE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHEARING FORCES
FROM EXITING LARGER UPPER LOW AND SQUEEZE FROM TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH S BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS HAS FOCUSED THE BOUNDARY ACROSS S TX NE
ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE TX COAST INTO THE COLD FRONT OVER LA. WITH UPPER
FLOW OUT OF THE SW A WEAK SFC INFLECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN
BY SFC WINDS OVER S TX BACKING WITH MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT TO THE WIND.
THIS HAS LEAD TO A GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT FIRST
OVER MEXICO THEN REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD INTO WEBB COUNTY TX AND NEW
DEVELOPMENT N AND NNEWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  EVENTUALLY CONVECTION
WILL UNZIP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARD KSAT...THOUGH WITH DEFORMATION
OF THE BOUNDARY OCCURRING BETWEEN THE TWO OPPOSING UPPER LOWS...CELL
MOTION VECTORS WILL BECOME SLOWER AND STATIONARY CELLS MAY BECOME THE
THREAT FOR HVY RAIN TOTALS.  CURRENTLY TOPS ARE COOLING TO -70C WITH THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING 2-2.5"/HR RAIN RATES.  AUTOESTIMATOR ESTIMATES
OVER THE LAST 3HRS ENDING AT 0630Z INDICATE TOTALS OVER 2" IN SW WEBB
ALREADY...WITH 1.5" TOTALS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2965 9827 2917 9755 2695 9935 2825 10045
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