ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/06/07 1636Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12 1615Z  CK
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LOCATION...SE/S/E TEXAS...SW LOUISIANA
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ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MCS CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD ALONG UPPR TO MIDDLE TX COASTAL AREA
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SINCE 13Z SPENES TSTMS HAVE CONTINUED
TO TRAIN ACRS THE UPPER TX COASTAL REGION INTO SW LA. MCS HAS ALSO
BACKBUILT DURING THAT TIME..AND NOW EXTENDS INTO BRAZORIA COUNTY. STLT
ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST 6 HRS HAVE AMOUNTS RANGING BTWN 2-5"..WITH THE
HEAVIEST TOTALS OVER CHAMBERS AND JEFFERSON. ONE OF THE AUTOMATED STLT
ESTIMATORS HAS MAX 6 HR TOTAL ENDING 16Z OF 5.5". ANOTHER INDICATES A
MAX OF 6"PLUS ALONG THE COAST.
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AS MENTIONED..BACK EDGE OF MCS HAS BACKBUILT INTO BRAZORIA COUNTY..WITH
LATEST IMAGERY SHOWING MERGING CELLS. NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS HAVE
ALSO BECOME APPARENT OVER CHAMBERS COUNTY. WITH MERGERS AND VERY HIGH
PW'S WELL IN EXCESS OF 2"..HOURLY RAINFALL BTWN 2-3" IS LIKELY FM BRAZORIA
TO CHAMBERS COUNTY..WITH 3"PLUS/HR PSBL.
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ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT BUILDING LINES OF CU/TCU TO THE W AND SW OF
MCS. ONE NARROW LN OF CU EXTENDS FM HARRIS TO LAVACA COUNTY AND IS
SHIFTING SEWD. MORE SIGNIFICANT LINE OF CU/TCU/CBS HAS BEEN DEVELOPING FM
MATAGORDA TO BEE COUNTY. THESE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT MCS WILL CONTINUE..IN
EFFECT.. TO BACKBUILD DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. BACKBUILDING SCENARIO
ALSO SUPPORTED BY SFC THETA-E RIDGE OVER DEEP S TX..AND SFC CONVERGENCE
MAX EXTENDING FM VCNTY OF LRD/WEBB COUNTY..TO PSX.
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FOR E TX..SW-NE LN OF TSTMS ASSOCD WITH NE TX/NW LA COMPLEX HAS PROGRESSED
SEWD AND HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH NRN PORTION OF MCS. TSTMS ARE BECOMING
ENHANCED AND HVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO EXAPAND ALONG/ACRS THE E TX/W
CENTRAL LA BORDER.
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AS FOR SW LA..INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL MOVE NEWD FM TX AND PRODUCE HVY RAIN
AT TIMES..BUT MAJOR IMPACT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER TX.
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GRAPHIC WILL BE AVAILABLE AT WEB ADDRESS BELOW IN APPX 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3054 9288 2970 9259 2746 9687 2844 9805 2993 9530
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