ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/06/07 1104Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1045Z AUTOESTIMATOR THRU 1030Z GG
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LOCATION...COASTAL LOUISIANA...SE COASTAL TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...LIX...LCH...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...COASTAL MCS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...TWO MCS COMPLEXES ARE DEVELOPING OR
CONTINUING AT/DURING DIURNAL MAXIMA FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS WHICH ARE
ALSO  BEING ENHANCED BY FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG COASTAL ZONE.
THE FIRST WHICH HAS SLIPPED ALONG THE LA COAST AND IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING ST. MARY/ST. MARTIN/ASSUMPTION PARISHES... THOUGH TOPS ARE
WARMING WITH HIGH PWS...RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.25-2.5"/HR SHOULD CONTINUE.
AUTOESTIMATORS...HAVE ESTIMATED 3HR TOTALS ALONG THE MCS PATH IN THE
COASTAL PARISHES AS HIGH AS 3.3" (ENDING 1030Z).

A SECOND MCS IS DEVELOPING DUE TO FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE BUT ALSO SOME
WEAK TO MODERATE SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH SLIGHTLY BACKED EAST
COMPONENT WINDS OVER LA AND MORE SOUTHERLY/SWLY WINDS OVER TX.  A LARGE
AREA OF -65C OR COLDER TOPS CAN BE SEEN WHICH MAKES THE RATES SIMILAR
TO THE OTHER MCS...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED OVERSHOOTING TOPS TO
-75C OVER CHAMBERS/JEFFERSON COUNTY IN TX...INDICATING POSSIBLE MERGERS
BUT RATES OVER 3"/HR.  WITH CONTINUED EXPANSION...MORE MERGERS SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SW LA ESPECIALLY OVER CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FF AS GROUND IS SATURATED FROM EARLIER MCS (PARTICULARLY
OVER E PORTIONS OF THE PARISHES).
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3099 9392 3063 9060 2879 8941 2900 9500
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