ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/06/07 0728Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0715Z  AUTOESTIMATOR THRU 0700Z  GG
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LOCATION...SW/W LOUISIANA...NE TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...LIX...LCH...SHV...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...85H BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER RED RIVER
SEEN IN WV WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW OVERRUNNING A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS DISCUSSED AREA..WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW IS AN WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN
AS A DARKENED AREA IN WV...THIS IS AIDING A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL SWLY
FLOW AND A SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW NEAR HENDERSON COUNTY IN
TURN...LEADING TO SOME EASTLY FLOW ACROSS LA AND SETTING UP A DISTINCT
850 FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW SE TO VERMILLION BAY.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THOUGH THE
THREAT FOR HVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS LIMITED TO TWO AREAS FOR DIFFERENT
STYLES.  THE FIRST IS NEAR THE SFC LOW WHERE CELL MOTIONS ARE EXTREMELY
SLOW AND THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED WITH FLOODING FROM THE PAST
FEW WEEKS.  THIS IS PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS OVER NE CHEROKEE COUNTY WHERE
A CELL HAS RAPIDLY COOLED WITH TOPS BELOW -65C...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF 2.16" PWS PER GOES SOUNDING...SATELLITE TECHNIQUES ESTIMATE RATES
OVER 2"/HR...WHICH ECCLIPSES FFG VALUES ALREADY.

THE SECOND AREA IS A LARGER OVERTURNING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SW
PARISHES OF LA (CAMERON/VERMILLION/JEFFERSON DAVIS/ACADIA)...WHERE A VERY
LARGE COMPLEX OF -70 TO -75C TOPS CONTINUE TO GROW WITH HINTS OF MERGING
CELLS.  PWS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH VALUES NEAR 2.25"...WHICH WILL
ALSO AID HIGHER RATES OF NEAR 3"/HR.  A FEW AREAS MAY GET SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN FROM REDVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE MAIN COMPLEX...WHICH WILL ALSO LEAD
TO FLOODING CONCERNS.  AUTOMATED SATELLITE TECHNIQUES ALREADY SHOW A 3HR
TOTALS EXCEEDING 3.0" OVER E CAMERON ANS NW VERMILLION PARISH ENDING AT
0700Z... THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATED AS WELL.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3286 9493 2990 9106 2919 9227 3182 9526
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