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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/30/07 0510Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0445Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...MISSOURI...OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT LOOKS TO BE WELL UNDERWAY OVER SE KS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF
SE KS/NE OK/W MO THIS EVENING.  EARLIER PERSISTENT COLD TOPPED CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER THAT WAS CENTERED OVER WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTY HAS SINCE
MOVED EAST WHILE ALSO WEAKENING SLIGHTLY PER RECENT CLOUD TOP WARMING.
STILL THOUGH, NLDN INDICATING CONCENTRATED CG LIGHTNING OVER CRAIG AND
LABETTE COUNTIES AND BELIEVE RAINFALL RATES OF OVER 1.0"/HR ARE LIKELY
WITH THESE CONVECTIVE CORES.
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WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST THAT A WEAK IMPULSE IS LIFTING
INTO NE KS, IT APPEARS THE MAIN LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
ABOUT 40 MILES WSW OF WLD.  IN ADDITION TO THE DPVA WITH THIS FEATURE,
DISCUSSION AREA IS ALSO IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A VERY WELL
DEFINED ANTI-CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET MAXIMUM.  0Z UA ANALYSIS WAS
SHOWING GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT (BEST FEATURED AT 305K) INTO DIVERGENT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET MAXIMUM.  PROFILER DATA SHOWS THAT LLJ AXIS
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED BETWEEN OKC AND TUL AND ALIGNED WELL WITH GOES
SOUNDER DERIVED 2.00-2.25" TPWS.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO BE FOCUSED OVER SE KS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE SHORT TERM.  DID NOTICE SOME SLIGHT VEERING AT 85H ON LOCAL AREA
VWPS AND THIS MAY AID IN SHIFTING FORCING AND HEAVY RAINFALL SLOWLY ENE.
UNTIL THEN THOUGH, WOULD PLACE AXIS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL (LOCAL TOTALS
OF 1-3" POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 3HRS) FROM SE GREENWOOD COUNTY TO W ST
CLAIR AND ALSO EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARDS CRAIG AND OTTAWA COUNTIES OF NE OK.
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QUICK LOOK AT 0445Z GOES EAST IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF PRONOUNCED CLOUD TOP
GROWTH JUST SE OF CNU.  THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CONVECTION THAT EARLIER AFFECTED PPF.  CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL REPORTS
OUT OF PPF AND THE INCREASED CLOUD TOP GROWTH SINCE THEN, WOULD THINK
RAINFALL RATES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 2.0"/HR WITH THIS CELL OVER SE
NEOSHO AND E LABETTE COUNTIES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3894 9586 3845 9380 3777 9275 3728 9268 3720 9350 3687
9467 3611 9512 3602 9574 3655 9643 3690 9697 3686 9775
3714 9820 3778 9784 3846 9700
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